Looking back over 5 weeks of data it's easy to say that you, me and the experts probably would have done things a little differently on draft day. Players like Peyton Manning, Jimmy Graham, Reggie Bush, Torrey Smith and DeSean Jackson would have probably be drafted at least a round sooner. The likes of CJ Spiller, Stevan Ridley, Roddy White and Dwayne Bowe would likely slip quite a bit. The unpredictability of fantasy football is simultaneously what makes this game we play so great and yet at times so frustrating. Unfortunately, we don't get another shot at the draft; we have to suck it up and roll with the guys we picked, for better or for worse.
For most of us in trade-wary leagues, The Waiver Wire Wideout is one of the last bastions of hope to improve your fantasy team. We all know the usual suspects here; they're the players that get added after a big game by an overly optimistic owner only to be promptly dropped like a sack of garbage the following week after posting a dud. We've all been guilty of chasing points on the wire - it's hard not to when someone like Eddie Royal posts up more fantasy points in Week 2 than Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant combined. My focus here is to look past the wild spikes in production to see if any underlying trends are emerging.
It's obvious to everyone that certain teams are far more friendly to wideouts than others, but that's only half the story. Just because Julio Jones (*single tear) or Calvin Johnson torched a team does not necessarily imply that this team is a fantasy gold mine for other, lesser mortals. I decided to dive into NFL.com's Fantasy Points Against data, and compare the overall numbers to how the second and third receiving options performed. To qualify, the player must not be: an elite (top-12) fantasy WR, the team's WR1 according to the depth chart, and must have scored more than 5 points in Standard in the given week. Here are the results:
A couple of things stand out to me here. Despite being the 5th worst defence against the pass, it appears the Redskins have only been a truly juicy match-up for WR1s (and QBs), with a mere 19% of fantasy points allowed going to the non-elite options. Similarly, a statistically-favourable match-up against the Packers has yielded only 7.1 fantasy pts/game (or 26% of total points allowed) to the opposing team's second and third receivers. On the other side of the coin, statistically stouter defences the Colts, Titans and Browns are averaging over 50% of their wide receiver fantasy points allowed to non-elite options, at 9.9, 9.7 and 8.4 pts/game allowed respectively.
I took the top teams listed above (that offer the best non-WR1 matchups) and plotted out their respective schedules for the next 5 weeks. I then counted up the number of times a team faces these favourable opponents. The results are as follows:
I think it becomes abundantly clear who I think the #1 waiver wire addition should be this week. Provided Miles Austin is still sidelined with a hamstring injury, Terrance Williams should be in line to see major statistical upside with 4 of the next 5 weeks coming against very favourable opponents. I'm also a fan of Keenan Allen, who has decent match-ups against Indy, Jacksonville, Washington and Denver approaching, although the presence of Vincent Brown may limit his upside. A word of caution on Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss, Riley Cooper & Jason Avant: while their schedules do look favourable, you'd have to be pretty desperate to start any of them in 12-team Standard formats at this stage. A shame, really.
Other WR2 players that made the list of favourable match-ups include Alshon Jeffery, Justin Blackmon, Mike Williams, and TY Hilton. These players should be owned in all leagues, so if they're on your wire, scoop them up!
Looking deeper at speculation picks, Rueben Randle and the slumping Giants have 3 very nice match-ups ahead, though I would avoid playing him on Thursday night against the Bears if you have other options. We'll have to monitor the Josh Freeman situation, but it looks as though eventually he could be the starter in Minnesota. With 4 favourable match-ups in the next 5 weeks, Jerome Simpson could turn out to be a sneaky add and potential bye-week flex play.
As we progress through the season I'll continue to monitor and update this list, with particular focus on those hidden gems that could end up being the difference makers to your fantasy season. Best of luck in Week 6!
@TheReidOption
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