Today on Reddit: A Tale of Two Bradys, plus more

Hello all!  In case you missed it on reddit today, here's a synopses of some of the numbers I dug through:

Tom Brady with/without Rob Gronkowski:

• In 2013 Tom Brady was QB#3 (21 PPG) in the 5 games where Gronk saw 50%+ of snaps. When Gronk was out: QB#19 (13.3 PPG)
• Amendola had a pretty terrible season, posting 54-633-2 over 12 starts (that's right, he only actually missed 5 games). That said, he was only actually on the field for 62% of offensive snaps for the whole season.  For the purposes of analysis, I'll only use games where Amendola got starter snaps (50%+), which are weeks 1, 5, 6, 8, 9 & 11-15 (i.e. he was injured or a non-factor in 7/17 games). Over these 10 "starter" games, he posted 51-579-2, good for 7.0 PPG (WR#33) in standard. He was 12.1 PPG (WR#28) in PPR for that same span.  As for Tom, in those 10 games that Amendola got starter snaps, he was 19.0 PPG (QB#4). In the 7 games Danny was out or played less than half of snaps, Tom posted 10.7 PPG (QB#23) below Flacco and Eli. It's worth noting that Gronk only played in one of these 7 games.  Conclusion: Brady is like two different QBs when Gronk/Amendola are on/off the field.
• In 2013 Vereen saw starter snaps (47%+) in 6 games (weeks 1, 11-15). He was not really utilized in Weeks 16 & 17; the Pats had made the playoffs at that point and leaned on Blount & Ridley. In these 6 "starting" games, Vereen posted 40-199-1 rushing & 43-381-1 receiving, good for 11.7 PPG (RB#14) in standard, but a whopping 18.8 PPG (RB#4) in PPR during that span.  With Vereen on the field getting starter snaps, Brady posted 21 PPG (QB#3) - but keep in mind Gronk was also on the field for half of these games. When Vereen was not getting starter reps, Brady posted 12.6 PPG (QB#20) below Flacco & Tannehill. Only 4 of these 11 games without Vereen had Gronk playing (so both were missing for 7/11).  Conclusion: Vereen is a PPR monster. Brady is a completely different QB with and without his weapons (this isn't much of a shock).

Peyton Manning with/without Wes Welker:

• Wes Welker himself was a Jekyll & Hyde tale of two seasons last year. Before the Broncos' bye (weeks 1-8), he went 40-555-9, good for 13.7PPG (WR#3) in Standard. In the full games he played after the bye (weeks 10-13), he posted an abysmal 18-162-0, or 4.1PPG (WR#61) behind the likes of Marquise Goodwin and Darius Johnson (who??) in that 4-game span.
• To answer your question, Peyton Manning with Wes (weeks 1-13) was 24.8PPG (QB#1), and without Wes (weeks 14-17) was 27.3PPG (QB#1). So, believe it or not the old man got better without Wes. Three of those last four games he threw 4 touchdowns. Sweet jesus.

Eddie Lacy with/without Aaron Rodgers:

• Aaron Rogers got starter snaps at QB for Weeks 1-3, 5-8 & 17 (8 games). He was injured/out for weeks 9-16 (8 games); week 4 was the bye.  Eddie Lacy played starter snaps in 14 games in 2013 (week 1, 5-17). He was out weeks 2 & 3 with a concussion, week 4 was the bye.
• During the 14 games Lacy played starter snaps (with and without Rodgers), he posted 283-1168-11 (4.1 YPC), good for 14.8 PPG (RB#4).  In the 6 weeks both Lacy and Rodgers were on the field together (weeks 1, 5-8 & 17), Lacy posted 132-502-4 (3.8 YPC), good for 13.8 PPG (RB#6). In the 8 weeks Rodgers was inured (weeks 9-16), Lacy posted 151-666-7 (4.4 YPC), good for 15.6 PPG (RB#3).  
• Lacy stepped up when he needed to and actually improved with his star QB sidelined with injury. The fact that he "came on" at the end of the season can also be attributed to the rookie becoming better acquainted with the offence, but it was clear they needed to lean on the run during that span and Fat Eddie preformed admirably.

Alshon Jeffery with/without Jay Cutler:

• Cutler saw starter snaps in Weeks 1-6, 10 and 15-17. McCown got the starter reps in 7, 9 and 11-14. During the 10 game Cutler era, Alshon posted 52-798-3 for 10.4PPG (WR#9). During the McCown 6 game era, Alshon posted 37-623-4 for 14.8PPG (WR#4).
• So yes, there was a difference. Though this also may be somewhat attributed to Alshon "coming on" later in the year as he got more comfortable in the offence.

Jordy Nelson with/without Aaron Rodgers:

• Jordy Nelson finished the season with 85-1314-8, good for 10.9 PPG (WR#11) in standard.
• Aaron Rodgers played starter snaps in weeks 1-3 (4 was a bye), 5-8 & 17. During the 8-game Rodgers era, Jordy posted 49-810-7, good for 15.4 PPG (WR#1). Yep. He was better than Calvin Johnson for the half season they were together. Pretty wild. Under QBs not named Aaron Rodgers (weeks 9-16), Jordy posted a meagre 36-504-1, good for a disappointing 7.1 PPG (WR#33) below the likes of Amendola and Harry Douglas.
• Conclusion: Similar to Welker and Brady, Nelson clearly had a tale of two seasons. With Aaron Rodgers under centre, Jordy was on fire as the best weekly fantasy receiver in the league. The loss of Rodgers destroyed Jordy's fantasy worth, flinging him from the elite group into the low WR3 tier.

I also got the same question about Jordy, except in PPR:

• Jordy Nelson finished the season with 85-1314-8, good for 16.5 PPG (WR#13) in PPR.
• Aaron Rodgers played starter snaps in weeks 1-3 (4 was a bye), 5-8 & 17. During the 8-game Rodgers era, Jordy posted 49-810-7, good for 21.5 PPG (WR#1) in PPR. Yep. He was (still) better than Calvin Johnson for the half season they were together. Pretty wild.
• Under QBs not named Aaron Rodgers (weeks 9-16), Jordy posted a meagre 36-504-1, good for a disappointing 11.6 PPG (WR#30) in PPR, on par with Greg Jennings and Doug Baldwin.

Jordy Nelson with/without Randall Cobb & Aaron Rodgers:

• Jordy with Rodgers & Cobb - 6 Games (weeks 1-3, 5-6 & 17): 37-645-4, good for 14.8 PPG (WR#1)
• Jordy with Rodgers & no Cobb - 2 Games (weeks 7-8): 12-165-3, good for 17.3(!!) PPG (WR#3). Important to note here that weeks 7 and 8 where when Marvin Jones blew up for 5 TDs and Megatron had nearly 500 yards in 2 games, so take that "WR#3" with a grain of salt.
• Jordy with no Rodgers & Cobb - 8 Games (weeks 9-16): 36-504-1, 7.1 PPG (WR#33).
• So it's a super small sample size, but I think it's fairly clear that it was the loss of Rodgers that had the most effect. The loss of Cobb would definitely hurt (having him draw coverage), but the QB play was the key for Jordy.

Randall Cobb:

• Randall Cobb played full games in weeks 1-3, 5 & 17. He was on bye in week 4 and got hurt in week 6.
• Over those 5 games with starter snaps, he posted 27-380-4, good for 14.0 PPG (WR#5). Jordy was WR#2 in that same span.
• So, provided all the pieces of the Packers passing game are back healthy, the production should be there to support Jordy/Cobb as very solid WR1/2's.