Thursday, August 4, 2016

Welcome to 2016!

It must be August.

Quick note to say welcome back to fantasy!  Looking forward to yet another season of getting my ass handed to me despite the ridiculously inordinate amount of time I spend on it.  The thrill of the hunt, I suppose.

As always, the best place to catch me in on Twitter where I'll be re-tweeting the shit out of everything I do and do not agree with to throw my league-mates off the scent.  (I'm kidding.  Mostly.)

My first draft of the season is underway!  I've joined the FTAFFL for a 3rd straight year.  I just couldn't resist another trip to fantasy football summer camp.  You can follow along here, if you're so inclined.

Best of luck this season!


Monday, September 21, 2015

Week 3 Links

Week 3 Waiver Wire Pickups... via @FTAKJ of  Get a jump on your competition with this early look ahead at the hottest wire pickups this week.  Reddit thread.

Defense Wins Championships: Week 3 ... let Lerchy guide the way on DST Streaming

Rich Hribar's The Worksheet: Week 3 ... Trusts, busts and reasonable returns.  Check it.

The Big Book of r/FantasyFootball Resources ...  props to /u/VIRMD for pulling this together. A massive list of fantasy football goodness.

Boris Chen's Visualized Tiers and Ranks ... another weekly favorite of mine.  Tier analysis of Fantasy Pros ECR.

Is the Red Zone really the Red Zone? ... an interesting take.  May surprise you.

Evan Silva's Matchups Week 3 ...  FantasyFootball essential reading.

Fantasy Football Trade Value Charts – Week 3 ... Making a move? Check out @FTAKJ's take on player trade values, organized by tiers.

I'll continue to add to this list through the week.  Best of luck in Week 3!

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Week 2 Links

Welcome to Week 2!

Week 1 Recap:

Week 1 Targets/Receptions/Yardage Data ... provided by @d1rtydan.  A great breakdown of the game stats from the first week.  Reddit thread.

Week 1 Snaps & Stats.... by /u/Naly_D.  Team-by-team breakdown of Week 1 numbers.  Reddit thread.

Fantasy Aftermath .... How did players preform vs. their Numberfire projections? Reddit thread.

Week 2 Looking Ahead: 

Defense Wins Championships Week 2 ... outstanding DST streaming work by @dtlerch. This is the voice I trust in deciding which defense to pick up. Reddit thread.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Tiers ...  @borisachen takes Week 2 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranks and processes them through his mathematical algorithm to create rank tiers.  Very useful in tough start/sit decisions

The Worksheet: Week 2 .... @LordReebs breaks down every Week 2 game with projected "Trusts, Busts and Reasonable Returns" on RotoWorld.

Week 2 RB Rankings ... courtesy @tjr4y of @RotoWriters.  Do you love Jeremy Hill? I do.

Week 2 - Fantasy Forecasts (Matchup Heatmaps) ... by @st_mack.  Macker's unique position-specific heat maps illustrate the fantasy road ahead from a strength of schedule perspective. Reddit thread.

NFL Savant ...  lose yourself in stat goodness.  Created by redditor /u/darenw.  Find him here on reddit or on twitter @darenw.

I'll continue to edit this post as more goodness comes out.  Stay tuned.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

2015 Draft Targets

Holy hell...  I'm making a blog post.  What year is it?

Apologies to my readers.  I've been slack on the posting here.  Hopefully by now you're following me on twitter; I'm much more active over that way this time of year.

I was trying to relieve the draft anxiety of a fellow fantasyhead over at r/fantasyfootball today.  Over the course of the afternoon we walked through some of my favorite fantasy players to target in drafts; slowly but surely he came down off the ledge and began actually looking forward to his draft (as he should!). What follows is the quick and dirty version of some of the things I shared with him:

Note: "ADP10" data is included because the guy I was helping was drafting in a 10-team league.  That said, I typically play in 12-team, so most of my thoughts will reflect that.  Also, arguably the most important thing you can do for your draft day prep is to compare "default" ADP data (from FFC) against the ADP data/default rankings of the site you are drafting on.  Knowing which guys will go too early and which guys will slip a round or two (or three+ in the case of Adrian Foster) will give you a massive leg up on your competition.  So many players are slaves to the default ranks.  Know where the bargains are. Find the value!

In standard, my top ranked RBs are:

Adrian PetersonRB11.01
Le'Veon BellRB21.02
Eddie LacyRB31.03
Marshawn LynchRB41.06
Jamaal CharlesRB51.04
C.J. AndersonRB61.09
Jeremy HillRB72.01
Matt ForteRB82.03
DeMarco MurrayRB92.06
Lamar MillerRB103.02
Frank GoreRB113.07
Justin ForsettRB122.09
Mark IngramRB133.10
Jonathan StewartRB145.02
LeSean McCoyRB153.01
Latavius MurrayRB164.03
Alfred MorrisRB174.05
Arian FosterRB186.09
Chris IvoryRB206.07

I love pretty much all of those guys except for LeSean McCoy (hurt), Latavius Murray (bad O), and Alf Morris (bad O), but the way I have them ranked here they are usually taken by someone else. Not counting those three guys that I'm shying away from, if you can get at least three of the guys on the above list in the first six rounds as your RB1 RB2 and Flex, I think you will be in very good shape this season.

FYI, Frank Gore is my most-owned player on this list, so that should tell you how I feel about him as my RB2 in the third round.  I also love Lamar Miller if he's still there in the third, or Mark Ingram/Jonathan Stewart later in the 3rd or early 4th in 12-team standard leagues.  Arian Foster is still criminally under-rated on most sites' default rankings.  Abuse this.  Take him in the 6th and sleep like a baby.  If one of your league-mates is sharp and snipes you on that move, Chris Ivory should be there too, and in my opinion either of those guys makes a fantastic third back to snag before the 7th round of 12-teamers.

In terms of WRs my thoughts in standard are as follows:  I'd be happy with anyone in the top6 as my stud WR1. I rank them:
  1. Antonio Brown
  2. Demaryius Thomas
  3. Odell Beckham Jr.
  4. Dez Bryant
  5. Julio Jones
  6. A.J. Green
Mid/Later round WRs I really like as my WR3/WR4/WR5:

Davante AdamsWR175.07
Jarvis LandryWR185.08
Jeremy MaclinWR196.03
Andre JohnsonWR224.10
Allen RobinsonWR237.02
Charles JohnsonWR308.01
Nelson AgholorWR317.03
John BrownWR328.06
Larry FitzgeraldWR279.07
Steve SmithWR329.02
Devin FunchessWR3610.06
Anquan BoldinWR2610.08

Davante Adams will be taking over Jordy's role in Green Bay. Love that kid at that price; I've been trying to snag him everywhere... 4th round in 12-team, which means you should be able to target him in the 5th in 10-team. Big fan of Allen Robinson in the 6th. And I'm loving the value of the old dudes late; I'm putting one of Larry Fitz, Anquan Boldin or Steve Smith on my roster in the 9th/10th. I'm also a fan of sprinkling in young guns Charles Johnson, Nelson Agholor, John Brown and Devin Funchess as well.

My targets at QB are simple: Tom Brady in the 8th, or Ryan Tannehill in the 10th. Full disclosure I am a Pats fan, but I believe Brady's suspension will get removed (possibly as soon as tomorrow). His value will skyrocket after that, so get him now while you can.  If you do take Brady, just take Carson Palmer later on.  He's got a fantastic first 5-week schedule and should serve as a great fill-in for Brady should the suspension be upheld.

On TE, my target is Travis Kelce, BIGTIME. Love this kid. He's basically Gronk on the Chiefs. He's a bully. Take him in the 5th round and smile like TRich knowing he has guaranteed money (somehow). If I miss on that, Delaine Walker can usually be snapped up near the tenth.  I also really like Tyler Eifert in the 11th round.

My final piece of advice:

Have fun; draft a team you'll love.  That's the joy of fantasy football.  Don't be a slave to the rankings of others.  Trust your gut.  Good luck.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Sunday, Bloody Sunday