Target Practice: Week 13

Welcome to Week 13!  This week I continue my analysis of which wide receivers are making the most of their chances in the passing game.  By using ProFootballFocus’ Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I will highlight the best and the worst of five wide receiver tier groupings. For reference, PPO,= Fantasy Points / (Receptions + Routes Run), while PPT = Fantasy Points / Targets.  The goal of this analysis is to highlight players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 13 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create five wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 13 – Tier 1:

I’m sounding like a broken record at this point, but the best of the best continues to beCalvin Johnson (0.44 PPO, 1.58 PPT), who had himself a great little Thanksgiving Day at home, surpassing the 100-yard receiving mark for a league-best 7th time this season.  Other stand-outs in the elite tier include Brandon Marshall (0.35 PPO, 1.34PPT) and Demaryius Thomas(0.35 PPO, 1.60 PPT).  Obviously there are no bad options here, but somewhat surprisinglyDez Bryant (0.30 PPO, 1.27 PPT) leads the list of players slumping the most in this tier, followed by Antonio Brown (0.31 PPO, 1.27 PPT), and A.J. Green (0.31 PPO, 1.18 PPT).  Nonetheless, owners should continue to start all of these players with confidence in Week 13.

Week 13 – Tier 2:

Despite leading this tier in PPO, many Jordy Nelson (0.30 PPO, 1.61 PPT) owners will be wishing for a speedy return for Aaron Rodgers after a very disappointing Thanksgiving Day outing with backup quarterback Matt Flynn under center for the Green Bay Packers.  Others topping my list in this tier include DeSean Jackson (0.37 PPO, 1.65 PPT) and Andre Johnson(0.31 PPO, 1.12 PPT), who continue to be risk/reward boarder-line WR1′s in Week 13.  The players struggling the most in this tier include Victor Cruz (0.26 PPO, 1.11 PPT) and Larry Fitzgerald (0.26 PPO, 1.28 PPT); both of which have seen their values fall this season to the disappointment of owners.

Week 13 – Tiers 3 & 4:

Grouping touchdown leader Riley Cooper (0.29 PPO, 1.94 PPT) headlines here, and will look to keep things going this week at home against the Cardinals.  Other notable players from this list include Keenan Allen (0.26 PPO, 1.36 PPT) and Michael Floyd (0.24 PPO, 1.27 PPT), who have both been preforming admirably of late.  Conversely, having only found the end-zone twice all season, Mike Wallace (0.18 PPO, 0.86 PPT) and Harry Douglas (0.22 PPO, 1.14 PPT) find themselves as the under-performers from these tiers as the season winds down, and are risky low-WR2 plays in Week 13.

Week 13 – Tier 5:

Slipping into the WR3 range, the players making the most of their chances in this tier are facing each other this week.  Look for T.Y. Hilton (0.29 PPO, 1.18 PPT) and PPR monsterKendall Wright (0.24 PPO, 0.99 PPT) to continue to progress as the lead passing options for their teams. On the other hand, players with the most unsavory numbers in this grouping are perennial disappointment Dwayne Bowe (0.17 PPO, 0.96 PPT) and Cecils Shorts (0.19 PPO, 0.74 PPT). Both fall into ‘Start at your own risk’ territory as far as I’m concerned.

Week 13 – Tier 6:

Going deeper, it’s very hard to trust anyone in Tier 6 with a starting job in Week 13, particularly if you’ve got playoff aspirations on the line.  That said, if your back is against the wall, there are a couple of players here who stand out among the rest.  Anquan Boldin (0.33 PPO, 1.31 PPT), Tavon Austin (0.30 PPO, 1.39 PPT) and Rueben Randle (0.29 PPO, 1.58 PPT) have made the most of their opportunities to date and could be worth a flier.  The players in this tier that I would have the hardest time relying on in Week 13 include Roddy White (0.08 PPO, 0.74 PPT), Robert Woods (0.15 PPO, 0.82 PPT) and Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0,85 PPT); these players have simply been too unreliable over the course of the 2013 season.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 13!

Essential Links: Week 13

Thought I'd get a head start this week on the posting.  Check out:

NYT Sablich Brothers' Fantasy Football: 2013 Matchup Analysis
I thought this graphic of The Circle of life in the NFL was very interesting

Stay tuned for updates to this list as we progress through the week, and follow me on twitter @TheReidOption to keep up with all the latest!

Essential Links: Week 12

My article: Target Practice: Week 12 has been posted on TopTeamFantasy.  Give it a read and come join the conversation on reddit!

Streaming DST

Nerdballmagazine's Defense Wins Championships Week 11

Stay tuned for updates to this list as we progress through the week, and follow me on twitter @TheReidOption to keep up with all the latest!

Target Practice: Week 12

Welcome to Week 12!  This week I continue my analysis of which wide receivers are making the most of their chances in the passing game.  By using ProFootballFocus’ Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I will highlight the best and the worst of four wide receiver tier groupings. For reference, PPO,= Fantasy Points / (Receptions + Routes Run), while PPT = Fantasy Points / Targets.  The goal of this analysis is to highlight players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 12 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create four wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 12 – Tier 1:

Calvin Johnson (0.46 PPO, 1.69 PPT) is pulling away from the pack, and for an unprecedented 3rd straight year has been the most dominant wide receiver in football.  Truthfully, he belongs in a tier all to himself.  If you drafted Megatron in the late first/early second round this past August and avoided the minefield of RB busts, go ahead and give yourself a solid pat on the back.  Johnson is the picture of reliable elite-level fantasy production week after week, and is winning leagues for his owners because of it.  Demaryius Thomas (0.35 PPO, 1.65 PPT), Brandon Marshall (0.35 PPO, 1.31 PPT) and Jordy Nelson (0.34 PPO, 1.68 PPT) round out the best-of-the-best list for Week 12, and continue to put up solid fantasy numbers across the board.  Victor Cruz (0.28 PPO, 1.13 PPT) and (somewhat surprisingly) Vincent Jackson (0.31 PPO, 1.01 PPT) check in as the top-tier players with the lowest PPO & PPT numbers this week, though I expect both players to have very solid weeks against the Cowboys and Lions, respectively.

Week 12 – Tiers 2 & 3:

The good news for Wes Welker owners is that he is working through concussion protocols and was back on the practice field Thursday.  All signs point to him suiting up for a huge match-up against his old team, the Patriots, on Sunday.  Wes has slipped into Tier 2 for the first time this season, but still leads this group with a PPO of 0.32 and PPT 1.37; I expect to see him back in Tier 1 shortly.  Antonio Brown (0.31 1.25) has been on fire of late in Standard scoring, averaging over 16 fantasy points per game over the last three games. That said, excited owners need to keep expectations in check this week as Brown is facing off against notoriously stingy Cornerback Joe Haden of the Cleveland Browns.  Other players in this tier making the most of their targets and opportunities include T.Y. Hilton (0.31 PPO, 1.27 PPT) and Josh Gordon (0.29 PPO, 1.35 PPT). On the other hand, while Kendall Wright(0.22 PPO, 0.87 PPT) has been very solid in PPR, he is the lowest hanging fruit among this tier.  Similarly, Marques Colston (0.21 PPO, 1.20 PPT) has been having a decent resurgence of late after a very disappointing start to the season, but will continue to frustrate owners with his swings in production.

Week 12 – Tier 4:

Tier 4 starts to get a little dicey, but there are still some solid producers in this grouping.  Leading the way in points-per-opportunity are Anquan Bolidn (0.29 PPO, 1.13 PPT), group TD leader Aaron Dobson (0.27 PPO, 1.12 PPT) and Jarrett Boykin (0.26 PPO, 1.32 PPT) who as been preforming admirably in the Randall Cobb role.  Points-per-target leaders includeKeenan Allen (0.25 PPO, 1.43 PPT) and Michael Floyd (0.24 PPO, 1.25 PPT), who is hot off a big performance in Week 11.  The worst of this tier can be summed up as “disappointing 2013 fantasy veterans”, and include: Roddy White (0.09 PPO, 0.71 PPT), Dwayne Bowe (0.15 PPO, 0.88 PPT) and Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0.85 PPT) who has yet to record a touchdown in 2013.  Start these guys at your own risk.

Week 12 – Tiers 5 & 6:

Going deeper, there are still a few decent options in the lower tiers.  Stand-outs in this grouping include Ruben Randle (0.30 PPO, 1.61 PPT), Rishard Matthews (0.27 PPT, 1.17 PPT) and Terrance Wiliams (0.26 PPO, 1.59 PPT).  All three should make for decent WR3/Flex plays in Week 12.  On the flip side, while Matthews has been coming on of late, it seems Mike Wallace (0.15 PPO, 0.74 PPT) and Brian Hartline (0.18 PPO, 0.92 PPT) continue to regress, and should be avoided in Standard scoring formats at this point.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 12!

Target Practice: Week 11

Welcome to Week 11!  With looming trade deadlines and crucial divisional match-ups on the line, it’s fantasy crunch time, so let’s get right to it!  This week I continue my analysis of which wide receivers are making the most of their chances in the passing game.  By usingProFootballFocus’ Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I will highlight the best and the worst of five wide receiver tier groupings. For reference, PPO,= Fantasy Points / (Receptions + Routes Run), while PPT = Fantasy Points / Targets.  The goal of this analysis is to highlight players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 11 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis (which is now featured by the New York Times – way to go Boris!) to create five wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 11 – Tier 1:

As always, it’s hard to go wrong in the elite tier, but there are still over and under-performers among this grouping. Calvin Johnson (0.44 PPO, 1.58 PPT) and DeSean Jackson (0.38 PPO, 1.63 PPT) continue to be exceptional, and lead the way in terms of points-per-opportunity.  On the flip side, Vincent Jackson (0.27 PPO, 0.90 PPT) has been playing a bit of fantasy whack-a-mole with his production over the season, though I expect a strong showing this week against the Falcons.  Antonio Brown (0.27 PPO, 1.14 PPT) and Pierre Garcon (0.29 PPO, 1.07 PPT) are viable WR1/2 starts, but continue to struggle the most out of this upper echelon of wideouts, largely due to their lack of touchdowns.  Look for them to rebound to the mean going forward.

Week 11 – Tier 2:

Riley Cooper (0.30 PPO, 2.11 PPT) has been on absolute fire these past few weeks, and has become a must-start fantasy WR2 option with monster upside.  He and QB Nick Foles clearly have a rapport and are certainly making the most of the up-tempo Chip Kelly offense. Jordy Nelson (0.34 PPO, 1.73 PPT) has taken a major hit in value but the talent is obviously still there; owners will need to pay close attention to how he and new QB Scott Tolzien work together this Sunday facing a Giants defense that has been playing much better of late.  Keenan Allen (0.26 PPO, 1.51 PPT) has also been making the most of his chances, though he’s also in for a tough match-up in Week 11 against a Dolphins secondary that is allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to receivers.  The WR2′s struggling the most with their opportunities in this tier are Cecil Shorts (0.21 PPO, 0.76 PPT) and Torrey Smith (0.23 PPO, 1.11 PPT), which is somewhat surprising when you consider that they are the feature pass catchers of their respective teams.

Week 11 – Tier 3:

The stand-out here is fairly obvious because of his touchdown production: Golden Tate (0.30 PPO, 1.43 PPT) has been able to put together a fine string of games for fantasy owners.  He will look to continue his pace with a great match-up this week at home against the Vikings, though Percy Harvin may steal some thunder facing his former team on his first game back from injury. Mike Wallace (0.16 PPO, 0.75 PPT) is the stinker in this small tier with a catch rate of only 52% and a lone TD score on the year.  If Wallace can’t turn things around this week against two Chargers corners that rank among the worst in the league according to PFF, his value will continue to fall.

Week 11 – Tier 4:

Treading into deeper waters, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in starting anyone from this tier Week 11, though the potential is present for a select few.  Aaron Dobson (0.28 PPO, 1.17 PPT) seems to be finally over his early season drops and was a clear benefactor to the surging Patriots offense, posting two scores in his last game.  Marques Colston (0.20 PPO,  1.19 PPT) was likely on your bench when he chose to awake from the fantasy dead in Week 10, posting a 107-yard game and his first touchdown since the season opener.  Owners have every reason to be cautious here, as this was likely more a function of the Cowboys terrible defensive play than a sign of a resurgence.  Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0.84 PPT) and Roddy White (0.07 PPO, 0.60 PPT) continue to be massive disappointments in fantasy land, and their chances of salvaging their dismal seasons are becoming slimmer by the minute.

Week 11 – Tier 5:

Into the deep end!  Most of these players are tough to start in standard 12-team formats at this point, though as with Tier 4, there are still a handful of players at this level that are outshining their rank.  Marvin Jones (0.38 PPO,  2.04 PPT) leads this group in points-per-opportunity and points-per-target by a wide margin, but his Week 11 match-up against the Browns is no cake walk. Rueben Randle (0.29 PPO, 1.51 PPT) could be another name to consider as a WR3/Flex flier; he’s facing a Packers team that has typically been generous to wideouts.  Anquan Boldin (0.28 PPO, 1.08 PPT), Kenny Stills (0.25 PPO, 2.35 PPT) and Jarett Boykin (0.26 PPO, 1.32 PPT) round out the list of tier 5 players making the most of their chances to date. Conversely, Brian Hartline (0.18 PPO, 0.98 PPT) has simply been too unreliable to be started in standard formats, and while “Smokin” Dwayne Bowe (0.14 PPO, 0.87 PPT) will be playing Sunday, he shouldn’t be starting for your team in case you get a random drug test.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 11!

Essential Links: Week 11

My article: Target Practice: Week 11 has been posted on TopTeamFantasy.  Give it a read and come join the conversation on reddit!

Severe weather could impact CHI vs BAL; CIN vs CLE.  Keep up with the latest in my reddit post.

Rankings

TopTeamFantasy's Week 11 Rankings
FantasyPros's Week 11 ECR Rankings
New York Times Boris Chen's ECR Tier Analysis

Articles

TheReidOption's Target Practice: Week 11
Fellow redditor Sean MacKinnon's Fantasy Results & Forecasts
Rotoworld Chet_G's Targets & Touches
Rotoworld Evan Silva's Matchups - A long but absolutely essential read each week.

Streaming DST

Nerdballmagazine's Defense Wins Championships Week 11

Fantasy Trades

CBSSports.com Dave Richard's Week 11 Fantasy Trade Values Chart

Stay tuned for updates to this list as we progress through the week, and follow me on twitter @TheReidOption to keep up with all the latest!

Target Practice: Week 10

Welcome to Week 10!  This past week has certainly had it’s share of unpredictability.  Player injuries, record performances and huge surprises all around… it’s never a dull moment in the NFL. With only 5 games left in the standard 14-game fantasy regular season, and likely only a week or two until your league’s trade deadline, now is the time to make moves to improve your team down the stretch. My advice to savvy owners is to try and consolidate depth for studs, such as 2-for-1 trades where you get the single elite player.  Knowing who to target and who to avoid can be crucial in this process.

Wide receiver targets can be a leading indicator of a players’ involvement in the passing game. That said, it is a little too easy to simply assume that more targets will automatically result in increased fantasy production.  By using ProFootballFocus.com’s Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I intend to highlight the best and the worst of five wide receiver tier groupings, and give you a leg-up on the competition. If you are not familiar with PPO, it is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored, and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run, while PPT divides the total fantasy points by the number of times that player has been targeted in the passing game.  As an example, last season top-tier wideout Dez Bryant posted 0.32 PPO and 1.57 PPT. By comparison, Wes Welker, who ended up as a solid WR2, had 0.27 PPO and 1.01 PPT.  The goal of this analysis is to point out those players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 10 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create five wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 10 Tier 1:

If you’ve got anyone listed in the elite tier, you’re starting them with confidence in Week 10, as these six have been on fire and show no signs of slowing.  What more can I say about Calvin Johnson (0.43 PPO 1.61 PPT) that hasn’t already been said about a transformer?  He’s unstoppable.  Wes Welker (0.37 PPO 1.52 PPT) continues to shine as the best draft value to date as part of the potent Broncos offence.  The player struggling the most out of this elite grouping is A.J. Green.  At 0.32 PPO and 1.17 PPT, he has clearly been preforming admirably as a WR1, but his drops (8) and catch percentage (58%) are the worst of the bunch.

Week 10 Tier 2:

While the target and reception averages remain quite similar to the elite tier, touchdown production is the key difference here, as these players have scored on average 3 TDs less than the Tier-1 crew.  Big name players Jordy Nelson (0.37 PPO 1.93 PPT) and DeSean Jackson (0.36 PPO 1.53 PPT) find themselves with a slight downgrade in rank after recent injuries to QBs Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick.  This being said, Nelson, Jackson and T.Y. Hilton (0.35 PPO, 1.33 PPT) remain the stand-outs in this grouping in terms of players making the most of their opportunities.  Despite having one of the best catch percentages in the league at 78%, Antonio Brown (0.27 PPO, 1.15 PPT) continues to rate among the lowest in this tier in terms of PPO and PPT.  That said, consider it a good sign that he and QB Ben Roethlisberger finally hooked up for a TD last week for the first time since Week 3. Pierre Garcon (0.27 PPO, 0.98 PPT) has been turning his mid-season slump around of late, bolstered by a solid 172-yard Week 9 performance and his 3rd TD on the year Thursday night.  He will need to continue this production in order to get back in the good graces of this analysis.

Week 10 Tiers 3 & 4:

Alshon Jeffery (0.29 PPO, 1.40 PPT) continues to make strides as the second threat oppositeBrandon Marshall in the Trestman Chicago Bears offense that keeps humming along despite bumps in the road.  It appears QB Jay Cutler will be back on the field this Sunday, so look for Jeffery to step up against a divisional rival Detroit Lions team that has been generous to wideouts. Denarius Moore (0.30 PPO, 1.37) is another player making the most of his opportunities in this grouping, despite still being unowned in one fifth of NFL.com leagues.  Moore has been kept out of the end-zone since Week 6, so he makes a prime buy-low candidate with QB Terrelle Pryor back under center and a juicy match-up against the Giants in store.  Anquan Boldin (0.31 PPO, 1.14 PPT), Larry Fitzgerald (0.26 PPO, 1.24 PPT), Terrance Williams (0.25 PPO, 1.59 PPT) and Golden Tate (0.26 PPO, 1.30 PPT) round out the list of players featured in this grouping making the most of their opportunities.

With still only 1 TD on the year, Mike Wallace (0.17 PPO, 0.80 PPT) continues to under-preform within his rank tier.  Similarly, Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0.81 PPT) and Cecil Shorts (0.21 PPO, 0.74 PPT) have been unable to capitalize on opportunities, though of the two I anticipate Shorts to have the greatest chance to rebound going forward on the news that Justin Blackmon has been suspended for the remainder of the 2013 season.

Week 10 Tier 5:

As touched on by Boris Chen, there is a steep ranking drop-off to this tier, and it’s difficult to recommend any of these players as anything more than a WR3/Flex play at best this week.  That being said, there are still a few players who stand above the rest as making the most of their chances. Waiver wire darlings of the past two weeks Riley Cooper (0.25 PPO, 1.84 PPT) and Marvin Jones (0.46 PPO, 2.22 PPT) have seen a huge boost to their numbers on the back of monster mid-season performances; owners could do far worse when considering high-upside plays this week.  Conversely, injuries sidelined Marques Colston (0.16 PPO, 1.01 PPT) in Week 9, effectively grounding the hopes of owners that he might salvage his terrible fantasy season to date. Michael Floyd (0.18 PPO, 1.02 PPT) and Brian Hartline (0.19 PPO, 1.01 PPT) have been similarly unable to make the most of their targets in standard leagues.

Week 10 Tier 6:

Going deep!  There are still a few gems down here in WR4 territory.  Fantasy football zombie Eddie Royal (0.31 PPO, 2.11 PPT) has come back from the statistical dead after scoring a touchdown in each of his last two outings.  Provided he can overcome his ailing toe, Royal becomes a viable deeper option this week.  With defenses focused on stopping Golden Tate, it’s Doug Baldwin (0.25 PPO, 1.43 PPT) who has stepped up and made big plays for the Seahawks.  While Baldwin’s numbers are promising, his upside is capped by the imminent return of Percy Harvin.  Mike Brown (0.22 PPO, 1.51 PPT) has really been making the most of his targets of late, averaging over 11 fantasy points in standard in his last two outings.  On the aforementioned news of Blackmon’s departure, Brown becomes a very intriguing deep option and is well worth a “stash and see”; he could very well ascend to be the new king of garbage time for the Jaguars.
On the other side of things, with news that Nate Burleson should be back soon, owners can safely drop Kris Durham (0.14 PPO, 0.82 PPT) who was unable to step up opposite Megatron.  As with Colston, Lance Moore (0.15 PPO 0.87 PPT) has also been too inconsistent to be trusted as a fantasy starter going forward, despite playing in a potent Saints offense.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 10!