Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Sunday, Bloody Sunday

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Quantum of Solace

So I had a fairly poor showing in my leagues in Week 1, securing a victory in only 2 of 6.

I do, however, take some small solace.  I drafted against many notable fantasy gurus in the Gridiron Experts Mock Draft back in July, and it turns out that team did quite well Week 1.  So I've got that going for me.  Which is nice.  *sobs quietly*




Monday, September 1, 2014

Reddit All-Stars Fantasy Football League Draft Recap

This season I invited a handful of my fellow FantasyBros and top contributors over at reddit's r/fantasyfootball to join a 12-team .5PPR league.

We drafted this past Monday.  Here is a link to our Draft Recap Post located in our new subreddit r/ffallstars.  Feel free to stop by there any time with questions or discussion!

Cheers,
Reid

Friday, August 29, 2014

Late Round RB Values

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Where to target later-round QBs on ESPN

I've got a couple of ESPN fantasy drafts under my belt.  A question came up today on reddit as to when people should be targeting later-round QBs.  The truth is, ESPN is very low on a number of players.

Check out my posting on reddit to see where I recommend taking Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Russell Wilson and Philip Rivers based on ESPN vs. Actual ADP data.

Also, be sure to utilize FantasyPros Dissenting Opinions: Football Rankings tool to mine for value and take advantage of players in your league who will be relying on default rankings.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

Building your team around Jimmy Graham (PPR)

This question popped up on reddit this afternoon, so I decided to dive in and have a look.  My official response here:

Great question.
I've got the #6 pick in my standard league, so I've been toying with different strategies (up to an including taking Graham - though I believe this is too early to do so in standard). Using FFC's Scenario Calculator[1] , we can walk through your first 4 picks in PPR and see who's available. Note, MyRank based on 12-team 1PPR QB 2RB 2WR 1Flex 1TE
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2.06[2]

Player%AvailMyRankECR[3]MyOverallECRoverall
Arian Foster43%RB9RB101117
Marshawn Lynch51%RB10RB111319
LeVeon Bell63%RB11RB91416
Giovani Bernard66%RB7RB8713
Antonio Brown79%WR4WR71718
Jordy Nelson87%WR9WR83521
Who I'd take: Giovani Bernard, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch. I'd really prefer to lock up an RB1 after spending a first rounder on Jimmy (who in some respects can be thought of as your WR1 in the TE slot).
.

3.07[4]

Player%AvailMyRankECR[5]MyOverallECRoverall
Reggie Bush56%RB16RB152427
Pierre Garcon60%WR14WR115126
C.J. Spiller71%RB19RB172738
Alfred Morris73%RB18RB192642
Keenan Allen74%WR11WR154736
Zac Stacy81%RB14RB132224
Victor Cruz89%WR17WR145833
Shane Vereen92%RB17RB162537
Vincent Jackson91%WR13WR134949
Andre Johnson90%WR12WR124848
Who I'd take: I'd probably be leaning towards a wideout after going TE, RB in the first two rounds, but the RB2 talent here is just too much to pass up. RB also has the most positional scarcity and is hardest to replace on the wire, so I wouldn't feel terrible using 2/3 of my first picks on a running back. I would take Stacy if he fell, or be perfectly happy with Bush, Vereen or Morris.
.

4.06[6]

I'm definitely looking to take a wideout after going TE-RB-RB, so I'm going to save time by only listing the available WRs:
Player%AvailMyRankECR[7]MyOverallECRoverall
Wes Welker49%WR23WR176641
Roddy White52%WR15WR165440
Larry Fitzgerald72%WR16WR185543
Cordarrelle Patterson76%WR22WR236551
Michael Crabtree85%WR22WR196445
Percy Harvin90%WR20WR266358
Who I'd take: Roddy White or Larry Fitzgerald. I'd then try to load up my next picks with WRs like Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd.


Ranking the RB Handcuffs

Rob Krattiger of Sports Porch and I got into a little discussion about the most valuable running back handcuffs on Reddit this evening.  Here's where I place them.

Terrance West

MyRank RB38, ADP RB35 (7.11) (-3) - Not sure West counts as a true "handcuff", as most people expect him to be the starter for at least some point. I'm a little lower on him than consensus, so he probably won't be on a lot of my teams unless he slips a little.
.

Ahmad Bradshaw

MyRank RB42, ADP RB51 (12.10) (+9) - I'm higher on Bradshaw by the exact amount I am lower on TRich, whos middling play last year made Donald Brown look like a star. Unlike West who you have to take in the 7th, I can easily snag Bradshaw in the 12th round, a huge steal for me.
.

Carlos Hyde

MyRank RB42, ADP RB46 (10.08) (+4) - Hyde has a clear path to backup RB duties for the run-heavy 49ers, who have one of the oldest worhorse backs in the NFL. We've been saying this for a while, but Frank Gore won't be around forever. Hyde is a must-stash in the tenth for the Gore owner.
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Devonta Freeman

MyRank RB45 ADP RB45 (10.02) (0) - Unlike Hyde, Freeman runs behind a much more injury prone back in Steven Jackson, who is already nursing a hammy and will likely miss the pre-season. Freeman has an excellent shot at starting this year. My concern here is that the Falcons might use their smaller backs Freeman (5'8'/206) and incumbent Jacquizz Rodgers (5'6'/196) in a timeshare should Jackson (6'2'/240) miss serious time. If you want Freeman on your team, you'll need to take him in the 9th, which seems a shade pricey to me.
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Christine Michael

MyRank RB48, ADP RB44 (10.01) *(-3) - Between Hyde, Freeman and Michael, I actually have Michael ranked the lowest, mostly because I like the chances of the other two starting more than I like the chances of Beast Mode (who is still only 28) actually going down. That said, Michael is a must-own for the Lynch owner, and will cost you your 9th round pick.
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Lance Dunbar

MyRank RB49, ADP RB56 (13.11) (+7) - DeMarco Murray has missed 16 games in the last 3 years, so opportunity seems likely. The Cowboys seem set to run the ball more behind an improved offensive line, which also bodes well. Dunbar has been impressing in camp, and makes a great depth add at a bargain basement 13th round cost.
.

Bernard Pierce

MyRank RB50, ADP RB36 (8.06) (-14) - Yeah... I'm not high on Pierce, in large part because in relief of Rice last year he was actually worse than Ray! The suspension of the Ravens' main back is also only 2 games, so I'm not confident in the workload. Also, with these types of deep-RB picks I like to target players who might "pop". Pierce is not that player. We've seen him. He fizzled.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

r/fantasyfootball's 32 in 32: New England Patriots Fantasy Preview (7/15/14)

Check out my contribution to the latest instalment of r/fantasyfootball's 32 in 32: New England Patriots on reddit, and feel free to join in the conversation there!


Personnel Changes

Notable Acquisitions: CB Darrelle Revis (TB), CB Brandon Browner (SEA), WR Brandon LaFell (CAR), S Patrick Chung (PHI)

Notable Departures: CB Aqib Talib (DEN), RB LeGarrette Blount (PIT), LB Brandon Spikes (BUF), LB Dane Fletcher (TB)

Draft Picks (overall): DT Dominique Easley (29), QB Jimmy Garoppolo (62), C Bryan Stork (105), RB James White (130),  OT Cameron Flemming (140), G Jon Halapio (179), DE Zach Moore (198), CB Jemea Thomas (206), WR Jeremy Gallon (244)


QB Assessment

As we learned a few weeks ago, it  was a tale of two Brady's in 2013.  Tom ranked QB3 (21 PPG) in the 5 games where Gronkowski saw at least 50% of snaps. When Gronk was out, he was QB19 (13.3 PPG).  Yep.  He finished the regular season with 380comp-4343yrds-25td-11int, good for 264.4 fantasy points (16.5PPG) as QB14 in fantasy, a major disappointment to owners who drafted him as his ADP of 4.07 QB4.  It was the first time he finished outside of the top-12 among quarterbacks since 2008. He only had six top-12 finishes last year, and had plenty of outings where he was barely a quarterback two for fantasy owners; Brady only warranted a fantasy start 37.5% of the time.

There is no doubt Brady was unlucky last year, but before we get into that, it’s also worth nothing that he simply wasn't the elite passer we have grown accustomed to seeing over the years. According to Pro Football Focus, his fantasy points per dropback have decreased in each of the last three seasons, as well as his deep ball accuracy. His stats under pressure were also concerning, as Brady completed just 57.6% of passes when under pressure, good for 28th among qualified passers.

On the luck side of things, not having all of his weapons healthy hurt tremendously. As many expected, Amendola spent more time on the trainer's table than the field, and the playing status of Gronk had a massive effect on the fantasy bottom line.  This said, Brady also didn't have a ton of help; New England pass catchers ranked second in dropped passes and first in being tackled at the one yard line (which happened eight times).   Clearly, there is huge fantasy potential here, but it still hinges on the health of a one of the most oft-injured Tight Ends in football.  Draft Brady as a fringe QB1 still, but he’s no longer one of the top dogs.  I love Tom in real life, but at his current ADP he likely won't be on many of my fantasy teams in 2014.

Tom Brady: My Rank: QB12, FantasyPros ECR Rank: QB10, ADP: 7.02 (QB8)


RB Assessment 

One of the first commandments of Fantasy Football reads:

    Thou Shalt Not Draft Patriots RBs

The problem with this rule is that it's just so god damned temping.  I mean, come on, we're talking about one of the best offences in the league!  The points are gonna be there!  The problem is that Belichick hates your fantasy football team.  Seriously.  He told me.

Stevan Ridley came out of the 2013 season with a bad case of the fumbles, which resulted in a loss of carries and a sub-1,000 yard season to follow his outstanding 2012. Ridley runs well between the tackles and is a good compliment to the shiftier Shane Vereen. There are other backs on the roster capable though, and if he cannot hold onto the ball, he'll get pushed by them for the starting job.  That said, with Blount now out of the way I think the path is clear for Ridley to regain his role as lead back in the offencse.  If he can hold on to the ball and receive starter snaps in a full 16 games, I think he presents a great draft day value coming off the board at 6.04 RB#29.  That said, history has shown us that nothing is a given with this team, so Ridley remains a high-upside boom/bust player.  Proceed with caution, but I personally believe he is good value at that draft position.

Shane Vereen once again had injury issues in 2013, and otherwise would have seen a lot more carries considering Stevan Ridley couldn't hang onto the ball. While Vereen tends to play a different role in the offense than Ridley (catching the ball and running outside), he can run between the tackles and could see more carries early on if Ridley continues to struggle with ball security.  Vereen is the favourite to lead the Patriots in fantasy production, with 4for4 projecting around 1050 all purpose yards and 7TDs.  As a pass-catching back, Vereen also clearly gets a huge boost in PPR leagues.


In terms of backups, Brandon Bolden has struggled with injuries and when he has been healthy, more often than not is inactive. He's a decent runner, but nothing special and one wonders if he'll make the cut come August. Former Dolphin Jonas Gray is a decent short yardage back, who was actually better than current Dolphin Daniel Thomas last summer. He runs with a bruising style and could be the replacement for LaGarrette Blount. Rookie James White was a fourth round selection who runs smart, and is patient behind his blockers. He's not the most explosive players but he has decent speed and could end up as a third-down back.


Stevan Ridley: My Rank: RB30, FantasyPros ECR: RB30  ADP 6.04 (RB29)
Shane Vereen: My Rank:  RB25, FantasyPros ECR: RB23, ADP 4.11 (RB22)


WR Assessment

In terms of wideouts, there really was only one true ray of light for Tom Brady: Julian Edelman.  105 receptions (4th highest in football) was pretty damn good.  A PPR dream, in fact.  While most entered the season thinking Amendola would be the 100-catch guy, it was the familiar face Julian Edelman who thrived with Brady. There were only four weeks where Edelman didn't haul in at least five passes last year, making him an elite points-per-reception asset.  That said, I must give a word of caution.  In 2013 Edelman exceeded his total production from his first four seasons combined, and he played 16 games for the first time in his career.  With the other weapons healthy in 2014, regression is likely.

My advice on Amendola: don't.  Just don't.  He's got the talent, but really can't stay healthy.  Avoid the headache and let someone else roll the dice with Danny on draft day.

Aaron Dobson came on in the middle of the season as he caught three touchdowns and 190 yards in two games against Miami and Pittsburgh before fracturing his foot.  Aaron could see plenty of targets this year if he's healthy, and recovery seems to be progressing well.  I personally think Dobson could prove to be a great draft day value at his current ADP of 11.12 (WR53) in 12-team standard leagues.

Dobson will be competing with former Carolina Panther Brandon LaFell. LaFell has never really fulfilled his potential, catching no more than 49 balls in a season or topping 700 yards. Meanwhile, according to some sources Josh Boyce might be competing with Kenbrell Thompkins for a roster spot. Boyce was hurt a lot last season (most of the receivers were) and will have to stand out in camp if he's going to win that fifth roster spot.  Truthfully, the fantasy WR situation in New England is murky at best.  There are clearly a number of talented players here, the question remains which will be the ones to stay healthy and rise to the occasion.

Julian Edelman: Mr Rank: WR32, FantasyPros ECR: WR29, ADP 6.10 (WR29)
Danny Amendola: Mr Rank: WR61 , FantasyPros ECR: WR53 , ADP 10.09 (WR46)
Aaron Dobson: Mr Rank: WR54  , FantasyPros ECR WR49, ADP 11.12 (WR53)


TE Assessment

Gronk smash!
The good news for the Patriots is that Rob Gronkowski remains on track in his recovery from re-constructive knee surgery.  The bad news, as we saw last year, is that Gronk is known to take his time when returning form injuries.  Proceed with caution (seems to be the theme song of this entire write-up), though I personally believe that compared to last year, he'll be ready to go closer to the start of the regular season, if not for Week 1.

If we knew he was going to play 16 games, Rob Gronkowski would be the top tight end in fantasy. There is no better red zone target in the game of football today and, like Jimmy Graham, he can totally alter the tight end position in fantasy land. During his seven games last year, Gronk averaged 5.5 catches for 84.5 yards and found the end zone four times, posting five top-12 finishes during those seven games. Draft him in the mid third round and hope he plays all 16 games.  If so, you’ll probably have the best tight end in fantasy football.  That said, most of you learned last year that drafting a backup TE is highly advisable.  But who knows, maybe you'll land this year's Julius Thomas (as I'm told many Gronk owners did last year).

Rob Gronkowski: My Rank: TE3, FantasyPros ECR: TE3, ADP 3.07 (TE3)


K/DST/Misc Assessment

You know, I hate drafting kickers.  I almost never do it.  But I'd make an exception for Stephen Gostowski in the thirteenth round.  Problem is, you're not going to get him there because someone always ends up reaching for him earlier. The man made 38 of 41 (92.7%) of field goals and was perfect on his 44 extra point attempts last year, to once more lead all fantasy kickers. The Patriots have ranked in the top ten in kicker scoring opportunities for seven straight years, the longest active streak in the league. The icing: they were number one the past two years.

What was a very talented defense in 2013 became even more so after the signing of CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner and the drafting of DT Dominique Easley. Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich provide a dynamic defensive end duo that can get to the quarterback. Donta' Hightower is a solid young MLB, but there are some question marks at OLB. A healthy Jerod Mayo would answer one of those questions and make this a very solid unit. With Revis in the mix and a very good pass rush, this should be a unit that provides a lot of sacks and big plays on the back end

Stephen Gostowski: My Rank: K2, FantasyPros ECR: K2, ADP 13.03 (K2)
Patriots DSTMy Rank: DST6, FantasyPros ECR: DST8, ADP 11.10 (DST6)


Coaching

The Dark Lord Reins Supreme.  Bill Belichick is one of the great football minds of our time, which makes forecasting fantasy projections incredibly tough.  With a lot of off-season focus on the defensive side of the ball, one would expect the Patriots to hold the lead in more games, likely shifting towards a more run-balanced offence.

OC Josh McDaniels enters his 3rd season as the team's OC. The Patriots were 1st in both points and yards in 2012. In 2013, they fell to 3rd and 7th respectively despite the plethora of injuries. Gronkowski’s recovery from a late-season ACL & PCL tear will be key to the Patriots’ offensive potential in 2014.


Notes

As an organization, you know you're doing something right when your team wins twelve games, makes the AFC Championship, and it’s still considered a "down"season.  That said, I want to make one thing perfectly clear:  Bill Belichick hates your fantasy team.  There is fantasy value to be had with the New England Patriots; The trouble lies in trying to predict it.  With virtually every player comes a risk to either under-preform or re-aggravate injury.  This said, the potential fantasy production is substantial, making most Pats players quintessential boom/bust plays in 2013.  Here's hoping for a boom!

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

r/fantasyfootball's 32 in 32: Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview (7/9/14)

Here's a sneak preview of tomorrow's posting in r/fantasyfootball's 32 in 32: Detroit Lions

Personnel Changes:

Notable Acquisitions: WR Golden Tate (SEA), HC Jim Caldwell (BAL OC), OC Joe Lombardi (NO QB Coach)

Notable Departures: HC Jim Schwartz, OC Scott Linehan, WR Nate Burleson

Draft Picks: (1.10) TE Eric Ebron, (2.08) OLB Kyle Van Noy, (3.12) C Travis Swanson, (4.33) CB Nevin Lawson, (4.36) DE Larry Webster, (5.18) DT Caraun Reid, (6.13) WR T.J. Jones, (7.14) K Nate Freese ... see guys, even the pros know better than to take a kicker before the last round.

Outside of the complete overhaul of the coaching staff, the only real fantasy noise the Lions made in the off-season was the signing of WR Golden Tate and the drafting of TE Eric Ebron in the first round.


QB Assessment:

Matthew Stafford finished QB5 over the fantasy season (weeks 1-16), posting 288.9 fantasy points (18.9 PPG) in 4PPTD over that span.  That said, citing an average of 19 PPG can be a little misleading.  The truth is, Stafford's 2013 was really a tale of three fantasy seasons, but unless you owned him you may not have noticed.  Take a look at his weekly production:

Week | Pts |QB#
---|---|----
1|20.9|QB12
2|19.2|QB12
3|22.6|QB9
4|19.5|QB11
5|14.4|QB17
6|25.5|QB4
7|26.3|QB5
8|28.7|QB3
9|BYE|BYE
10|19.7|QB8
11|23.9|QB4
12|20.5|QB9
13|24.0|QB5
14|5.7|QB33
15|11.3|QB27
16|6.8|QB29

Stafford came out of the gate posting decent baseline (QB12-type) numbers over the first five weeks, although this was somewhat disappointing to fantasy owners who took him at his ADP of 6.07 (QB8).  After the slow start he got white hot from weeks 6-13, averaging top-5 QB (24.1 PPG) numbers.  Just when fantasy owners were feeling comfortable with their every-week starter, the fantasy wheels fell off the bus against Philly in week 14 and never recovered.  He finished no better than an abysmal QB27 over weeks 14-16, essentially hanging his owners out to dry during the fantasy football playoffs (a mortal sin).

Looking ahead to 2014, Stafford will begin the year with some of the best offensive weapons that he has ever had.  He has ranked inside the top-five in pass attempts in each of the last three seasons and has been durable during this span, shaking the injury-prone label of his early days by not missing a single game.  The biggest concern here is how much Stafford struggles when Calvin Johnson is not in the lineup, but given Megatron's ability to play well through nagging injuries, this shouldn't keep owners up at night.

Outside of the big three at the quarterback position, Stafford is the next best thing.  The Lions are one of the top offences in the league and should be involved in plenty of shoot-outs in the NFC North.  Stafford could easily emerge into the top-three in scoring this year, and is a decent bet for top-5 production.

Matthew Stafford: My rank: QB5; FantasyPros ECR: QB4, Current ADP: 4.12.  If he falls to you in the 5th round, don't hesitate to take him.  If you really want him, you'll likely need to snag him in the 4th.


RB Assessment: 

Meagtron taking the top off of opposing defences opened the door for both Lions tailbacks set career highs in 2013.  Reggie Bush was a very pleasant surprise for owners, finishing as RB10 in standard and outperforming his ADP of RB17.   Bush posted 223-1006-4 (4.5 YPC) rushing and 54-506-3 receiving, good for 190.7 fantasy points in standard (11.9 PPG).  In PPR things were even better, and Bush finished RB7 with  244.7 fantasy points (15.3 PPG).  That said, it was clear Reggie did wear down a bit and also missed two games due to injury, so there is reason to be cautious with him in 2014 at his current draft price.  Bush is currently coming off the board as RB17 (just like last year) with an ADP of 3.08 in 12-team standard.

Joique Bell finished the season as RB17 in standard, making him an absolute steal for owners who took a flier on him in the 12th round (on average).  Bell posted 166-653-8 (3.9 YPC) rushing and 53-547-0 receiving, good for 166 fantasy points (10.4 PPG) .  Last year, Bell averaged 38.9 snaps per game, compared to Bush’s 43.6, but still managed to produce more fantasy points per touch. Bell also handled red-zone duty, seeing 29 looks in close, more than even Megatron.  Under new offensive coordinator Scott Lombardi, many believe that something similar to the Saints backfield will be take shape with Bush catching passes (in a Sproles/Thomas-type role), and Bell being their banger between the tackles and handling short-yardage/goal line work.  For this reason many (myself included) have Bush/Bell ranked very closely coming into 2014, but the ADP data still has quite a large gap.  Bell is currently coming off the board as RB27 5.10 in 12-team standard.  At this price, I think Bell is **an outstanding value**, and the clear winner between the two when looking at draft equity.  The only point of caution here is the fact that Bell has been dealing with an off-season knee issue that kept him out of OTAs, but most believe he should be good to go for camp later this month.

Getting into the backups, Lions RB Theo Riddick could also surprise some people this season, and has been the subject of buzz from numerous sources. His RB/WR hybrid skillset overlaps more with Reggie Bush's talents than Joique Bell's, so it is likely Bush would be hurt most by the Lions possibly switching to a three-headed RB approach that offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi saw work very well in New Orleans. Riddick isn't worth drafting at this time, but keep a close eye on him on the wire in PPR leagues, and be sure to not overdraft Reggie Bush.  Similarly, Mikel Leshoure would likely only become fantasy relevant if the injury bug strikes the big two.

**Reggie Bush:** My rank: RB21; FantasyPros ECR: RB18; ADP 3.08 (RB17).  I don't like him at this ADP, he likely won't be on many of my teams in 2014 at this price.

**Joique Bell:** My rank: RB20; FantasyPros ECR: RB25; ADP 5.10 (RB27).  Outstanding value; a potential RB2 being drafted at RB3 prices.  He could easily eclipse Bush in fantasy production in 2014.


 WR Assessment:

What can I say about Calvin Johnson?  Do I even need to say it?  He's really good at football.  Ridiculously good.  Over the past 5 years, he has been one of the most consistently high performers the league has ever seen, and is the centrepiece of the Lions' offense.  He's unquestionably a mid-late first round fantasy draft pick as a WR1 again in 2014, and is one of the safest bets you can make in fantasy football. Johnson has been working his way back from surgery on his right knee and a finger on his left hand during recent OTAs, but he appeared to be moving without difficulty and should be full-go once again this season.  Fear not.  He is a transformer, after all.

With Nate Burleson released and Ryan Broyles failing to stay healthy, the Lions were desperate for a second receiver to line up across from Megatron.  Enter Golden Tate, who was the clear prize for the Lions in free agency, accepting a five0year, $31.25 million deal.  In Tate, Johnson will have a game-breaking side-kick working opposite him for the first time in his seven-year career, which should benefit them both.  In 2013, Tate had an efficient fantasy season, posting 1.21 fantasy points-per-target on a career-high 99 targets, which was right on his three-year average.  Last year, the Lions threw it 51% more than the Seahawks, so Tate should be in line for a clear bump in production assuming he can develop a rapport with Stafford.  Playing opposite Calvin pretty much ensures single coverage on virtually every play, which is also a huge plus. Going into 2013 I see Tate as a fantasy WR3 with definite upside.

In terms of backups,  Kris Durham was actually Detroit’s #2 wideout last season, but he had just three receptions in the final four games of the season.  Similarly, Ryan Broyles and Kevin Ogletree remain undraftable waiver fodder barring injury to the big two.

Calvin Johnson: My rank: WR1; FantasyPros ECR: WR1; ADP 1.06.  Quite possibly the safest bet in fantasy football.

Golden Tate: My rank: WR30; FantasyPros ECR: WR32; ADP 7.06 (WR31).  Should be a very solid WR3 to target in the 7th round.


TE Assessment:

Brandon Pettigrew signed a four-year contract extension in the spring, so it came as a bit of a surprise when the Lions selected Eric Ebron with the 10th overall pick in the first round of this year's draft. Pettigrew is coming off his worst season since his rookie year, posting 41-416-2 and finishing TE31 in standard after a late-season ankle injury caused him to miss the final two games, a story that has plagued his career.

Joseph Faurina finished his rookie season with ok numbers, but his production was laregely TD-dependant, making him nearly impossible to rely upon for fantasy purposes. His three TD catch game against Cleveland was the highlight of his year, and he added six catches in the final two games with Pettigrew on the sideline. The Cleveland game was his only game with more than 10 fantasy points, despite four other TD catches over the season.

Eric Ebron was the first tight end selected in the 2014 NFL draft, and is already being compared to the likes of Vernon Davis for his freakish athleticism.   Those comparisons to Davis and the talk of a Graham-like role in Lombardi's offence may have fantasy owners salivating, but the simple fact is rookie tight ends very rarely make a dent in fantasy football.  While his dynasty value is clearly there, at this point he remains only a speculation pick in redraft, and it not worth more than a late round flier as a backup TE2 at this point.

Eric Ebron:  My rank: TE22; FantasyPros ECR: TE17; ADP: 11.03 (and falling) TE12.  Right now Ebron is being taken well ahead of Martellus Bennet, Heath Miller & Ladarius Green, which I think is a little nuts.  I would snag him as a late round flier, but not in the 11th/12th.  Rookie TEs seldom deliver.


Kicker/DST/Misc Assessment:

Kicker Sleeper Alert (did I really just write that?)  Rookie Nate Freese is the favorite to get the starting job for the Lions. He topped the recruiting chart and they used a 7th round draft pick to select him.  He could be a sneaky last round fantasy pick/early season waiver add, as he'll kick for a potent offence who also happen to play in a dome (a huge plus for kickers).

DST: While the Lions D-line anchored by Suh has been solid, the secondary continues to be a question mark and will likely stay that way.  This is great news for the skill positions outlined above, as Detriot will likely be in lots of high-scoring shoot-outs once again.  That said, if the secondary play improves the Lions could be a  sneaky DST in fantasy, but I'd still likely avoid them unless /u/quickonthedrawl changed my mind.


Coaching: 

HC: Jim Caldwell replaces Jim Schwartz
OC: Joe Lombardi replaces Scott Linehan
Former Ravens OC, the cool and calm Jim Caldwell takes over for the fiery Jim Schwartz at the helm the Lions, in a move that should serve to bring a little more stability to the locker room.  This also bodes well for Matthew Stafford, who should likely benefit from Caldwell's experience cocahing Peyton Manning and most recently shaping Joe Flacco into form for their 2012 Superbowl run.

After seven seasons as the offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach in New Orleans, Joe Lombardi takes over the offence in Detroit, and is reportedly still calling Saints plays in OTAs.  He’s expected to use a committee at RB, spreading the touches between Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.  New Orleans was pass-heavy during his time there, and I'd expect more of the same from the Lions this year.


Notes:

After complete and utter collapse down the stretch in 2013, it was clear that a coaching overhaul was necessary for the Lions, which should bring some much needed stability.  Calvin Johnson should continue to hold elite fantasy WR value and be one of the safest bets in fantasy football.  Stafford should continue to push towards elite status, but for now remains in the solid tier-2 of QBs.  I see Bush and Bell being fairly close in fantasy value this year, which means that Bush is currently being over-drafted and Bell remains a solid value in the late 5th round.  Both should be very capable RB2's.  Golden Tate will have an opportunity to put his superior catching ability to good use in the Lions pass-happy offence.  He makes an excellent WR3 with WR2 upside in the mid-7th round.  I'm not personally sold on having to rely on any of the Lions TE for fantasy purposes in 2013, but Ebron's superior athleticism sets him apart as a solid dynasty pick-up and 2015 prospect.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Today on Reddit: A Tale of Two Bradys, plus more

Hello all!  In case you missed it on reddit today, here's a synopses of some of the numbers I dug through:

Tom Brady with/without Rob Gronkowski:
  • In 2013 Tom Brady was QB#3 (21 PPG) in the 5 games where Gronk saw 50%+ of snaps. When Gronk was out: QB#19 (13.3 PPG)
  • Amendola had a pretty terrible season, posting 54-633-2 over 12 starts (that's right, he only actually missed 5 games). That said, he was only actually on the field for 62% of offensive snaps for the whole season.  For the purposes of analysis, I'll only use games where Amendola got starter snaps (50%+), which are weeks 1, 5, 6, 8, 9 & 11-15 (i.e. he was injured or a non-factor in 7/17 games). Over these 10 "starter" games, he posted 51-579-2, good for 7.0 PPG (WR#33) in standard. He was 12.1 PPG (WR#28) in PPR for that same span.  As for Tom, in those 10 games that Amendola got starter snaps, he was 19.0 PPG (QB#4). In the 7 games Danny was out or played less than half of snaps, Tom posted 10.7 PPG (QB#23) below Flacco and Eli. It's worth noting that Gronk only played in one of these 7 games.  Conclusion: Brady is like two different QBs when Gronk/Amendola are on/off the field.
  • In 2013 Vereen saw starter snaps (47%+) in 6 games (weeks 1, 11-15). He was not really utilized in Weeks 16 & 17; the Pats had made the playoffs at that point and leaned on Blount & Ridley. In these 6 "starting" games, Vereen posted 40-199-1 rushing & 43-381-1 receiving, good for 11.7 PPG (RB#14) in standard, but a whopping 18.8 PPG (RB#4) in PPR during that span.  With Vereen on the field getting starter snaps, Brady posted 21 PPG (QB#3) - but keep in mind Gronk was also on the field for half of these games. When Vereen was not getting starter reps, Brady posted 12.6 PPG (QB#20) below Flacco & Tannehill. Only 4 of these 11 games without Vereen had Gronk playing (so both were missing for 7/11).  Conclusion: Vereen is a PPR monster. Brady is a completely different QB with and without his weapons (this isn't much of a shock).

Peyton Manning with/without Wes Welker:
  • Wes Welker himself was a Jekyll & Hyde tale of two seasons last year. Before the Broncos' bye (weeks 1-8), he went 40-555-9, good for 13.7PPG (WR#3) in Standard. In the full games he played after the bye (weeks 10-13), he posted an abysmal 18-162-0, or 4.1PPG (WR#61) behind the likes of Marquise Goodwin and Darius Johnson (who??) in that 4-game span.
  • To answer your question, Peyton Manning with Wes (weeks 1-13) was 24.8PPG (QB#1), and without Wes (weeks 14-17) was 27.3PPG (QB#1). So, believe it or not the old man got better without Wes. Three of those last four games he threw 4 touchdowns. Sweet jesus.

Eddie Lacy with/without Aaron Rodgers:
  • Aaron Rogers got starter snaps at QB for Weeks 1-3, 5-8 & 17 (8 games). He was injured/out for weeks 9-16 (8 games); week 4 was the bye.  Eddie Lacy played starter snaps in 14 games in 2013 (week 1, 5-17). He was out weeks 2 & 3 with a concussion, week 4 was the bye.
  • During the 14 games Lacy played starter snaps (with and without Rodgers), he posted 283-1168-11 (4.1 YPC), good for 14.8 PPG (RB#4).  In the 6 weeks both Lacy and Rodgers were on the field together (weeks 1, 5-8 & 17), Lacy posted 132-502-4 (3.8 YPC), good for 13.8 PPG (RB#6). In the 8 weeks Rodgers was inured (weeks 9-16), Lacy posted 151-666-7 (4.4 YPC), good for 15.6 PPG (RB#3).  
  • Lacy stepped up when he needed to and actually improved with his star QB sidelined with injury. The fact that he "came on" at the end of the season can also be attributed to the rookie becoming better acquainted with the offence, but it was clear they needed to lean on the run during that span and Fat Eddie preformed admirably.

Alshon Jeffery with/without Jay Cutler:
  • Cutler saw starter snaps in Weeks 1-6, 10 and 15-17. McCown got the starter reps in 7, 9 and 11-14. During the 10 game Cutler era, Alshon posted 52-798-3 for 10.4PPG (WR#9). During the McCown 6 game era, Alshon posted 37-623-4 for 14.8PPG (WR#4).
  • So yes, there was a difference. Though this also may be somewhat attributed to Alshon "coming on" later in the year as he got more comfortable in the offence.

Jordy Nelson with/without Aaron Rodgers:
  • Jordy Nelson finished the season with 85-1314-8, good for 10.9 PPG (WR#11) in standard.
  • Aaron Rodgers played starter snaps in weeks 1-3 (4 was a bye), 5-8 & 17. During the 8-game Rodgers era, Jordy posted 49-810-7, good for 15.4 PPG (WR#1). Yep. He was better than Calvin Johnson for the half season they were together. Pretty wild. Under QBs not named Aaron Rodgers (weeks 9-16), Jordy posted a meagre 36-504-1, good for a disappointing 7.1 PPG (WR#33) below the likes of Amendola and Harry Douglas.
  • Conclusion: Similar to Welker and Brady, Nelson clearly had a tale of two seasons. With Aaron Rodgers under centre, Jordy was on fire as the best weekly fantasy receiver in the league. The loss of Rodgers destroyed Jordy's fantasy worth, flinging him from the elite group into the low WR3 tier.
I also got the same question about Jordy, except in PPR:
  • Jordy Nelson finished the season with 85-1314-8, good for 16.5 PPG (WR#13) in PPR.
  • Aaron Rodgers played starter snaps in weeks 1-3 (4 was a bye), 5-8 & 17. During the 8-game Rodgers era, Jordy posted 49-810-7, good for 21.5 PPG (WR#1) in PPR. Yep. He was (still) better than Calvin Johnson for the half season they were together. Pretty wild.
  • Under QBs not named Aaron Rodgers (weeks 9-16), Jordy posted a meagre 36-504-1, good for a disappointing 11.6 PPG (WR#30) in PPR, on par with Greg Jennings and Doug Baldwin.
Jordy Nelson with/without Randall Cobb & Aaron Rodgers:
  • Jordy with Rodgers & Cobb - 6 Games (weeks 1-3, 5-6 & 17): 37-645-4, good for 14.8 PPG (WR#1)
  • Jordy with Rodgers & no Cobb - 2 Games (weeks 7-8): 12-165-3, good for 17.3(!!) PPG (WR#3). Important to note here that weeks 7 and 8 where when Marvin Jones blew up for 5 TDs and Megatron had nearly 500 yards in 2 games, so take that "WR#3" with a grain of salt.
  • Jordy with no Rodgers & Cobb - 8 Games (weeks 9-16): 36-504-1, 7.1 PPG (WR#33).
  • So it's a super small sample size, but I think it's fairly clear that it was the loss of Rodgers that had the most effect. The loss of Cobb would definitely hurt (having him draw coverage), but the QB play was the key for Jordy.
Randall Cobb:
  • Randall Cobb played full games in weeks 1-3, 5 & 17. He was on bye in week 4 and got hurt in week 6.
  • Over those 5 games with starter snaps, he posted 27-380-4, good for 14.0 PPG (WR#5). Jordy was WR#2 in that same span.
  • So, provided all the pieces of the Packers passing game are back healthy, the production should be there to support Jordy/Cobb as very solid WR1/2's.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

2014

Hey all,
Quick note to say hello and welcome back!  I apologize for my lack of posts over the past few months - I took a bit of an off-season breather.

The looming NFL draft has me re-engaged and ready to go.  Be sure to follow me on twitter, where I post and re-tweet the best fantasy football info from across the net.

Cheers and good luck in 2014,

Reid