Target Practice: Week 8

Welcome to Week 8!  Statistically speaking, it’s highly likely that you’ve incurred an injury or two by this point.  If you haven’t, you should probably go buy a lottery ticket.  If you have, don’t sweat it too much, as everyone else in your league is likely experiencing similar pains.  Now, more than ever, is the time to buckle down and focus on making smart moves going forward.  Part of that will be to trade for or pick up players that can improve your fantasy prospects, and knowing who to target can give you a major advantage.  This week we continue our series on the analysis of wide receiver targets and opportunities as they pertain to fantasy point production.

In the NFL, the value of a wide receiver is often measured by his weekly targets; you’ll often hear people cite targets and receptions as one of the key wide-out metrics.  However, it’s a little too easy to simply assume that more targets automatically results in more fantasy production.  I’ll be using ProFootballFocus.com’s Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric to highlight the best and the worst of four wide receiver tier groupings. If you are not familiar with PPO, it is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored, and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run, while PPT divides the total fantasy points by the number of times that player has been targeted in the passing game.  As an example, last season top-tier Wideout Dez Bryant posted 1.57 PPT and 0.32 PPO. By comparison, Wes Welker, who ended up as a solid WR2, had 1.01 PPT and 0.27 PPO.   The goal of this analysis is to point out those players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  This week I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create four wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 8 Tier 1:

 Did you see that catch by Calvin Johnson in triple coverage last week?  No? Well It was incredible, and returns Megatron (0.36 PPO,  1.42 PPT) to the #1 overall ranked WR.  Truly, there are no bad options in this elite tier, but there are a few players that stand out above the rest.  Wes Welker once again headlines the best of the best with a 0.37 PPO and 1.54 PPT and shows no signs of slowing down as Peyton Manning‘s favorite weapon.  Vincent Jackson (0.35 PPO, 1.04 PPT) was targeted a mind-blowing 22 times by Mike Glennon in Week 7; it’s clear that the young QB has found his go-to guy in the pass attack.  Due to the number of teams on bye in Week 8, Antonio Brown (0.29 PPO, 1.20 PPT) and Pierre Garcon(0.26 PPO, 0.95) find themselves in the elite tier, but will need to improve on those numbers if they intend to stay among the top guns.

Week 8 Tier 2: 

Jarrett Boykin came off the Packers’ bench in Week 7 and made a massive impact in the pass attack, posting a stat line of 9/146/1 as the slot receiver replacing the injured Randall Cobb.  At 0.29 PPO and 1.37 PPT, Boykin figures to cement his quick rise into the WR2 tier as part of the potent Green Bay passing attack.  Justin Blackmon (0.36 PPO, 1.23 PPT) continues to impress, though his lack of touchdowns has been the biggest factor keeping him out of the elite tier.  Anquan Boldin (0.30 PPO, 1.14 PPT) rounds out the list of wide receivers making the most of their opportunities on this list.  At the other end of the spectrum, will the real Marques Colston please stand up?  At 0.18 PPO and 1.13 PPT, the vertical threat in New Orleans has clearly been underwhelming to date, but look for him to improve these numbers if superstar Jimmy Graham can’t go this week.  Similarly, Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0.90 PPT) continues to disappoint owners, and was unable to capitalize on several red-zone targets thrown his way against the hapless Vikings in Week 7.  Mike Wallace is hanging in the WR2 tier by a thread, and will be hard-pressed to improve on his 0.18 PPO and 0.81 PPT this week when facing shut-down corner Aqib Talib and the New England Patriots.

Week 8 Tiers 3 & 4: 

Oddly enough, the average receptions, yardage, TDs and PPT of tiers 3 and 4 are actuallyhigher than tier 2.  This tells me that there are still a number of under-the-radar players on this list that may be making their way up the ladder.  Trade-savvy fantasy owners take note: there are definitely still a few diamonds in the WR3 rough this week.  Denarius Moore (0.37 PPO, 1.56) continues to benefit from the play of Terrelle Pryor and the emerging Raiders pass attack.  As Hakeem Nicks regresses, Rueben Randle (0.29 PPO, 1.39 PPT) has been heating up and may soon eclipse the veteran as the #2 receiver for the Giants behind Victor Cruz.  Lastly, I’ve been singing the praises of the Cowboys’ Terrance Williams for a few weeks now.  With a 0.28 PPO and a whopping 1.98 PPT, he is quickly climbing the rankings ladder as be continues to build rapport with Tony Romo. The veterans Roddy White (0.07 PPO, 0.59 PPT) and Danny Amendola (0.16 PPO, 0.59) simply can’t seem to get healthy and continue to disappoint owners with their lack of playing time and production.  Cecil Shorts (0.22 PPO, 0.74 PPT) has been largely unable to capitalize on his 74 targets, finding the endzone only once to date.  Lastly, feel free to drop Dwayne Bowe (0.15 PPO, 0.99PPT) for more attractive options on the wire if they become available.  He does not figure to be anything more than an afterthought in the Jamaal Charles show.

Week 8 Tiers 5: 

Going deep once again, there are a couple of interesting prospects here.  Brandon Lafell (0.28 PPO, 1.59 PPT), Brandon Gibson (0.23 PPO, 1.08 PPT) and Sidney Rice (0.22 PPO, 1.31 PPT) have had up-and-down seasons to date, but are showing that they can make the best of their opportunities.  Keep a close eye on Stephen Hill (0.18 PPO, 1.09 PPT) going forward; Geno Smith has shown an affinity for taking longer shots down field and Hill is the deep threat for the Jets.  Similarly, E.J. Manuel is due to return from injury in a few weeks time; look for Robert Woods (0.16 PPO, 0.90 PPT) to pick up where they left off in Week 4.  On the flip side, Kris Durham (0.14 PPO, 0.81 PPT), Emmanuel Sanders (0.16 PPO, 0.81 PPT) andAaron Dobson (0.17 PPO, 0.71 PPT) have failed to impress in this tier and have been unable to capitalize on their targets and opportunities to date.

Keep on the look-out for weekly updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 8!

#ThatHelpsNoOne

My tweet was featured on yesterday's episode of NFL Fantasy Live (45:15).  Cool to get mentioned, and a big thank-you to my friends on Twitter (@yerdwoc) and Reddit for recognizing it and pointing it out to me!

Target Practice: Week 7

Welcome to Week 7! This week we continue our series on the analysis of wide receiver targets and opportunities as they pertain to fantasy point production.  In the NFL, the value of a wide receiver is often measured by his weekly targets; you’ll often hear people cite targets and receptions as one of the key wide-out metrics. However, it’s a little too easy to simply assume that more targets automatically results in more fantasy production. I’ll be using ProFootballFocus.com’s Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric to highlight the best and the worst of four wide receiver tier groupings.

If you are not familiar with PPO, it is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored, and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run, while PPT divides the total fantasy points by the number of times that player has been targeted in the passing game.  As an example, last season top-tier Wideout Dez Bryant posted 1.57 PPT and 0.32 PPO. By comparison, Wes Welker, who ended up as a solid WR2, had 1.01 PPT and 0.27 PPO.   The goal of this analysis is to point out those players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  This week I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysisto create four wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 7 Tier 1:

 It has taken 6 weeks, but the performance of DeSean Jackson in the Chip Kelly offence has propelled him from a low-end WR2 on draft day to one of the 5 elite options in Week 7.  Nick Foles has kept the Philly offence humming along and has filled in admirably for the ailingMichael Vick.  Look for Jackson to post solid numbers as he continues to tear through the porous secondaries of the NFC-least.  A.J. Green currently leads the league with 66 targets, but has been the biggest underachiever in this elite tier.  Look for Green to improve on his 1.06 PPT and 0.3 PPO against the Lions on Sunday.

Week 7 Tier 2:

As I highlighted in last week’s article, Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon have been on absolute fire since coming back from suspension, and now both find themselves firmly in the WR1 discussion.  Blackmon leads this tier with a whopping 0.49 PPO and Gordon has been generating 1.39 fantasy points per target, good for 3rd best in this tier.  With Randall Cobb now out until week 15 and James Jones still questionable for Sunday look for Jordy Nelson to step up in a big way.  Bolstered by what are already some of the best numbers in this tier, I fully expect Jordy to improve on his 1.86 PPT and 0.35 PPO as a featured pass catcher for Aaron Rodgers.  Pierre Garcon now finds himself in elite company as the 12th overall ranked wide receiver for Week 7; however he’ll need to improve on his tier-worst 0.98 PPT and 0.26 PPO if he plans on staying at the WR1 level.

Week 7 Tier 3 & 4:

At 1.25 PPT and 0.27 PPO, Week 7 WR#27 Rueben Randle finds himself among the top of the pack in this grouping after finally finding the end-zone three times in the last 2 games.  As Nicks continues to slip down the rankings board, look for Randle to continue to rebound from his slow start to the season; favourable upcoming match-ups against the Vikings and Eagles should help his cause. Alshon Jeffery had a disappointing outing in Week 6, posting only 4.2 fantasy points after consecutive 20-point outings in the previous 2 weeks.  However, Alshon is still among the best in this tier at 1.34 PPT and 0.28 PPO and owners should look forward to what will likely be big games against Washington and Green Bay in the near future.  The player in the grouping who is making the most of his targets continues to beJames Jones at a very nice 1.72 PPT.  Provided he is ready for action on Sunday, look for him to step up with Jordy to fill the void left by Cobb.  Lastly, I’ve been singing the praises ofKeenan Allen (1.53 PPT, 0.26 PPO) for some time.  With another 100+ yard 1 TD performance on Monday Night Football, Allen is quietly emerging as the potential break-out rookie of the year.  Remarkably he is still only owned in 42% of NFL.com leagues, so if you’re reading this, stop what you’re doing and check to see if Allen is on your waiver wire!  (Then please come back… I’m not done just yet).  Conversely, at a dismal 0.59 PPT and 0.07 PPO few wide receivers have been as big a disappointment to owners as Roddy White.  Given that Julio Jones is out for the season, White is in the position to be the #1 receiver in Atlanta.  Alas, he has simply not been able to stay healthy and is once again in jeopardy of missing Week 7. Mike Wallace (0.79 PPT, 0.17 PPO), Steve L. Smith (0.88 PPT, 0.22 PPO) and Hakeem Nicks(1.03 PPT, 0.19 PPO) round out this tier with below average numbers.  Look for their values to continue to fall unless they can turn things around.

Week 7 Tier 5 & 6:

The stand-out player on this list for me continues to be the rookie Terrance Williams in Dallas.  With a 2.01 PPT and 0.28 PPO, he has done a fine job of stepping in to the second receiver role opposite Dez Bryant.  With the oft-injured Miles Austin returning to play the future is a little cloudy for Williams, but given his performance these past few weeks it is no small stretch to see him becoming a feature player in the Cowboy’s offense if Austin regresses.  All eyes will be on Josh Freeman on Monday night as he makes his starting debut for the Vikings.  The biggest beneficiary here is likely Greg Jennings, who should see an increase to his already tier-leading 1.35 PPT and 0.23 PPO numbers against the lowly New York Football Giants.  Harry Douglas will likely be the starting receiver for the Falcons on Sunday, but owners need to temper expectations a little – he’s no Julio.  With White limited all season, Douglas has still only managed to post a dismal 0.12 PPO and 219 yards on 25 targets.  Vincent Brown (0.88 PPT, 0.13 PPO), Aaron Dobson (0.75 PPT, 0.18PPO) and Emmanuel Sanders (0.83 PPT, 0.17 PPO) headline the list of players in this tier who have simply been unable to make the most of their opportunities.  Of these three, I like Dobson’s rebound chances the best with Danny Amendola seemingly destined to spend most of his time as a new Patriot on the side line.

Keep on the look-out for weekly updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 7!

Target Practice: Week 6

Welcome to Week 6!  Hopefully this article finds you on the top of your game and your fantasy football league.  If not, don’t sweat it too much; there is still plenty of time to right the ship and make a playoff run provided you stay informed and make the right moves going forward.  A common expression in fantasy football is: “Once is chance, twice is coincidence, and three times is a trend.”  With five weeks of data in the books we can now start to dive into the numbers with the hopes of uncovering these 2013 trends.

In football, the value of a wide receiver is often measured by his weekly targets; you’ll often hear people cite targets and receptions as one of the key wide-out metrics.  However, it’s a little too easy to simply assume that more targets automatically results in more fantasy production.  This week, I’ll be using ProFootballFocus.com’s Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric to highlight the best and the worst of four wide receiver tiers: WR1, WR2, WR3/Flex & WR4/Bench.

If you are not familiar with PPO, it is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored, and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run, while PPT divides the total fantasy points by the number of times that player has been targeted in the passing game. The goal here is to point out those players who may be over or under performing in their current standing. 

Week 6 WR1:Here is the data for the top-12 ranked WRs for Week 6, according to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (Standard Scoring):

A few things stand out to me here.  With Calvin Johnson banged up and Julio Jones out for the season, Dez Bryant has emerged as the clear #1 WR in fantasy football.  He’ll look to continue his torrid pace against defenses in the NFC East that rank amongst the most favorable for wide receivers in the league.  Wes Welker has also been making a huge impact as part of the potentially record-breaking Broncos offense.  Welker leads all other elite options with a whopping 0.42 points-per-opportunity, and 1.75 fantasy points-per-target.  Welker, Torrey Smith and Pierre Garcon have all been very pleasant surprises for fantasy owners this season, rocketing up the rankings board from their preseason allocations as WR2s.  The slumping players on this list include A.J. Green and Andre Johnson.  Green leads the entire elite group in targets, but these extra looks have not translated into fantasy production since his big first outing in Week 1.  Similarly, the struggles of Matt Schaub have hurt Johnson, who currently ranks 30th in fantasy points scored by wide receivers.  While owners will still be starting these players each week, they’ll clearly be hoping for a rebound going forward.

Week 6 WR2:

As you can see, Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon have come off their suspensions with a vengeance, rewarding the fantasy owners who were patient enough to await their return.  While Blackmon’s sample size is much smaller than the rest on this list, it is clear that he figures to be a main “garbage time” weapon for the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, posting 2.18 PPT on 9 targets in Week 5.  DeSean Jackson, Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery have all been producing more than 0.3 PPO and greater than 1.3 points per target; a great sign for things to come.  Cecil Shorts leads the league with 61 targets, but he has not been able to translate his more than 12 looks per game into the fantasy production owners are hoping for, at only 0.77 fantasy points per target.  Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Danny Amendola round out the list of big name players that have had an underwhelming start to the season, with V-Jax only averaging 0.7 PPT and Colston posting a woeful 0.2 PPO.  Look for these two players to rebound in the very near future. 

Week 6 WR3/Flex:

Leading this list with 1.77 points-per-target is one of my favorite waiver wire pick-ups of the week, Terrence Williams.  Provided Miles Austin remains sidelined with hamstring issues, Williams figures to be a great compliment to Dez in the Dallas offense.  Similarly, James Jones has been a stellar WR3, posting 45 fantasy points and a catch percentage of 73% on 26 targets through 5 games.  Denarius Moore, Anquan Boldin and TY Hilton have all been able to produce more than 0.3 points-per-opportunity and very respectable points-per-target numbers.  On the contrary, it’s possible that better days are behind Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Bowe.  These three have been in ranking free-fall since the season opener.  They are at or below 0.2 points-per-opportunity, and have combined for only 3 touchdowns through 5 Weeks.  If you happen to see future promise any either of these players, their respective owners would likely sell them to you for a sack of magic beans at this point.

Week 6 WR4/Bench:

Now we’re getting deep!  Truthfully, this is one of my favorite tiers to analyze because several of these players are available in a majority of leagues and could potentially emerge to be difference makers on your team.  While Greg Jennings and Nate Washington lead this list with PPO’s of 0.29, both are simply too erratic to be relied upon in standard formats at this point.  Players I particularly like in this tier include Keenan Allen, Stephen Hill andAustin Pettis.  The word is out on Allen, and he’s been a hot waiver wire target of late.  Through 5 weeks he has posted a stellar 1.62 PPT despite having 2 TDs called back on Sunday, and has emerged to become a big part of the revitalized Chargers offence, as discussed in this recent TopTeamFantasy article.  With Santonio Holmes sidelined, look for Hill to step up as the Jets top vertical threat, having caught 71% of passes directed his way for 1.47 points-per-target.  Lastly, Pettis has quietly become the Ram’s leading red zone threat.  With numbers like 1.36 PPT and a 0.23 PPO, look for Pettis to emerge as one of Sam Bradford’s most trusted targets moving forward.

Keep on the look-out for weekly updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 6!

TheReidOption: The Waiver Wire Wideout

Week 6 is upon us.  It sounds crazy to say, but this means the fantasy football regular season is now more than one third complete.  If you're like me then you feel like we just got started.  The good news is, there are still at least 9 weeks left to test your fantasy mettle and break your heart (though hopefully not the latter).

Looking back over 5 weeks of data it's easy to say that you, me and the experts probably would have done things a little differently on draft day.  Players like Peyton Manning, Jimmy Graham, Reggie Bush, Torrey Smith and DeSean Jackson would have probably be drafted at least a round sooner.  The likes of CJ Spiller, Stevan Ridley, Roddy White and Dwayne Bowe would likely slip quite a bit.  The unpredictability of fantasy football is simultaneously what makes this game we play so great and yet at times so frustrating.  Unfortunately, we don't get another shot at the draft;  we have to suck it up and roll with the guys we picked, for better or for worse.

For most of us in trade-wary leagues, The Waiver Wire Wideout is one of the last bastions of hope to improve your fantasy team.  We all know the usual suspects here; they're the players that get added after a big game by an overly optimistic owner only to be promptly dropped like a sack of garbage the following week after posting a dud.  We've all been guilty of chasing points on the wire - it's hard not to when someone like Eddie Royal posts up more fantasy points in Week 2 than Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant combined.  My focus here is to look past the wild spikes in production to see if any underlying trends are emerging.

It's obvious to everyone that certain teams are far more friendly to wideouts than others, but that's only half the story.  Just because Julio Jones (*single tear) or Calvin Johnson torched a team does not necessarily imply that this team is a fantasy gold mine for other, lesser mortals. I decided to dive into NFL.com's Fantasy Points Against data, and compare the overall numbers to how the second and third receiving options performed.  To qualify, the player must not be: an elite (top-12) fantasy WR, the team's WR1 according to the depth chart, and must have scored more than 5 points in Standard in the given week.  Here are the results:

A couple of things stand out to me here.  Despite being the 5th worst defence against the pass, it appears the Redskins have only been a truly juicy match-up for WR1s (and QBs), with a mere 19% of fantasy points allowed going to the non-elite options.  Similarly, a statistically-favourable match-up against the Packers has yielded only 7.1 fantasy pts/game (or 26% of total points allowed) to the opposing team's second and third receivers.  On the other side of the coin, statistically stouter defences the Colts, Titans and Browns are averaging over 50% of their wide receiver fantasy points allowed to non-elite options, at 9.9, 9.7 and 8.4 pts/game allowed respectively.

I took the top teams listed above (that offer the best non-WR1 matchups) and plotted out their respective schedules for the next 5 weeks.  I then counted up the number of times a team faces these favourable opponents.  The results are as follows:

I think it becomes abundantly clear who I think the #1 waiver wire addition should be this week.  Provided Miles Austin is still sidelined with a hamstring injury, Terrance Williams should be in line to see major statistical upside with 4 of the next 5 weeks coming against very favourable opponents.  I'm also a fan of Keenan Allen, who has decent match-ups against Indy, Jacksonville, Washington and Denver approaching, although the presence of Vincent Brown may limit his upside.  A word of caution on Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss, Riley Cooper & Jason Avant: while their schedules do look favourable, you'd have to be pretty desperate to start any of them in 12-team Standard formats at this stage.  A shame, really.

Other WR2 players that made the list of favourable match-ups include Alshon Jeffery, Justin Blackmon, Mike Williams, and TY Hilton.  These players should be owned in all leagues, so if they're on your wire, scoop them up!

Looking deeper at speculation picks, Rueben Randle and the slumping Giants have 3 very nice match-ups ahead, though I would avoid playing him on Thursday night against the Bears if you have other options.  We'll have to monitor the Josh Freeman situation, but it looks as though eventually he could be the starter in Minnesota.  With 4 favourable match-ups in the next 5 weeks, Jerome Simpson could turn out to be a sneaky add and potential bye-week flex play.

As we progress through the season I'll continue to monitor and update this list, with particular focus on those hidden gems that could end up being the difference makers to your fantasy season.  Best of luck in Week 6!

@TheReidOption

Week 5, continued

Tonight while browsing @ChetG's The Fake Football I stumbled upon Advanced NFL Stats.  I'm admittedly a pretty huge stats nerd, but this place is awesome.  Worth a look if you love the numbers.

I've also been diving into my Pro Football Focus fantasy gold subscription.  Great content, both on the free and pay portions of the site.

This evening @FantasyTrade411 tweeted out a great link to their DraftStreet Value Rankings Analysis.  I always love seeing ranking differentials (movement between weeks).  To me, knowing a player's value is only half the story.  The other half is: which way is that value moving?

.... Stay tuned as this list will be updated through the week and follow me on twitter @TheReidOption to keep up with all things fantasy football!

Call me FantasyBro!

I'm honoured to have just been named one of 4 'FantasyBros' of the week in the r/fantasyfootball sub-reddit.

Here's the posting

I'd also like to thank @MikeClayNFL and the good folks at Pro Football Focus Fantasy for hooking me up with my prize: a Gold Subscription to PFF Fantasy.  I can't wait to dig into the site!

Needless to say, I'm incredibly grateful to the mods and the community for the award!  For those of you not on reddit, r/fantasyfootball is a great place to discuss all things fantasy football.  There are daily WDIS (who do I start) threads and lots of great contributors like @borischen (the ECR tiers guru) and @dtlerch (The DST guru) to bounce ideas off of on a daily basis.  Check it out!  I'll see you there (my reddit name is: TheReidOption).

Thanks again!
@TheReidOption