Welcome to Week 8! Statistically speaking, it’s highly likely that you’ve incurred an injury or two by this point. If you haven’t, you should probably go buy a lottery ticket. If you have, don’t sweat it too much, as everyone else in your league is likely experiencing similar pains. Now, more than ever, is the time to buckle down and focus on making smart moves going forward. Part of that will be to trade for or pick up players that can improve your fantasy prospects, and knowing who to target can give you a major advantage. This week we continue our series on the analysis of wide receiver targets and opportunities as they pertain to fantasy point production.
In the NFL, the value of a wide receiver is often measured by his weekly targets; you’ll often hear people cite targets and receptions as one of the key wide-out metrics. However, it’s a little too easy to simply assume that more targets automatically results in more fantasy production. I’ll be using ProFootballFocus.com’s Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric to highlight the best and the worst of four wide receiver tier groupings. If you are not familiar with PPO, it is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored, and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run, while PPT divides the total fantasy points by the number of times that player has been targeted in the passing game. As an example, last season top-tier Wideout Dez Bryant posted 1.57 PPT and 0.32 PPO. By comparison, Wes Welker, who ended up as a solid WR2, had 1.01 PPT and 0.27 PPO. The goal of this analysis is to point out those players who may be over or under performing in their current standing. This week I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create four wide receiver analysis groupings.
Week 8 Tier 1:
Week 8 Tier 2:
Jarrett Boykin came off the Packers’ bench in Week 7 and made a massive impact in the pass attack, posting a stat line of 9/146/1 as the slot receiver replacing the injured Randall Cobb. At 0.29 PPO and 1.37 PPT, Boykin figures to cement his quick rise into the WR2 tier as part of the potent Green Bay passing attack. Justin Blackmon (0.36 PPO, 1.23 PPT) continues to impress, though his lack of touchdowns has been the biggest factor keeping him out of the elite tier. Anquan Boldin (0.30 PPO, 1.14 PPT) rounds out the list of wide receivers making the most of their opportunities on this list. At the other end of the spectrum, will the real Marques Colston please stand up? At 0.18 PPO and 1.13 PPT, the vertical threat in New Orleans has clearly been underwhelming to date, but look for him to improve these numbers if superstar Jimmy Graham can’t go this week. Similarly, Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0.90 PPT) continues to disappoint owners, and was unable to capitalize on several red-zone targets thrown his way against the hapless Vikings in Week 7. Mike Wallace is hanging in the WR2 tier by a thread, and will be hard-pressed to improve on his 0.18 PPO and 0.81 PPT this week when facing shut-down corner Aqib Talib and the New England Patriots.
Week 8 Tiers 3 & 4:
Oddly enough, the average receptions, yardage, TDs and PPT of tiers 3 and 4 are actuallyhigher than tier 2. This tells me that there are still a number of under-the-radar players on this list that may be making their way up the ladder. Trade-savvy fantasy owners take note: there are definitely still a few diamonds in the WR3 rough this week. Denarius Moore (0.37 PPO, 1.56) continues to benefit from the play of Terrelle Pryor and the emerging Raiders pass attack. As Hakeem Nicks regresses, Rueben Randle (0.29 PPO, 1.39 PPT) has been heating up and may soon eclipse the veteran as the #2 receiver for the Giants behind Victor Cruz. Lastly, I’ve been singing the praises of the Cowboys’ Terrance Williams for a few weeks now. With a 0.28 PPO and a whopping 1.98 PPT, he is quickly climbing the rankings ladder as be continues to build rapport with Tony Romo. The veterans Roddy White (0.07 PPO, 0.59 PPT) and Danny Amendola (0.16 PPO, 0.59) simply can’t seem to get healthy and continue to disappoint owners with their lack of playing time and production. Cecil Shorts (0.22 PPO, 0.74 PPT) has been largely unable to capitalize on his 74 targets, finding the endzone only once to date. Lastly, feel free to drop Dwayne Bowe (0.15 PPO, 0.99PPT) for more attractive options on the wire if they become available. He does not figure to be anything more than an afterthought in the Jamaal Charles show.
Week 8 Tiers 5:
Going deep once again, there are a couple of interesting prospects here. Brandon Lafell (0.28 PPO, 1.59 PPT), Brandon Gibson (0.23 PPO, 1.08 PPT) and Sidney Rice (0.22 PPO, 1.31 PPT) have had up-and-down seasons to date, but are showing that they can make the best of their opportunities. Keep a close eye on Stephen Hill (0.18 PPO, 1.09 PPT) going forward; Geno Smith has shown an affinity for taking longer shots down field and Hill is the deep threat for the Jets. Similarly, E.J. Manuel is due to return from injury in a few weeks time; look for Robert Woods (0.16 PPO, 0.90 PPT) to pick up where they left off in Week 4. On the flip side, Kris Durham (0.14 PPO, 0.81 PPT), Emmanuel Sanders (0.16 PPO, 0.81 PPT) andAaron Dobson (0.17 PPO, 0.71 PPT) have failed to impress in this tier and have been unable to capitalize on their targets and opportunities to date.
Keep on the look-out for weekly updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season. As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 8!
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