Personnel Changes
Notable Acquisitions: CB Darrelle Revis (TB), CB Brandon Browner (SEA), WR Brandon LaFell (CAR), S Patrick Chung (PHI)
Draft Picks (overall): DT Dominique Easley (29), QB Jimmy Garoppolo (62), C Bryan Stork (105), RB James White (130), OT Cameron Flemming (140), G Jon Halapio (179), DE Zach Moore (198), CB Jemea Thomas (206), WR Jeremy Gallon (244)
QB Assessment
As we learned a few weeks ago, it was a tale of two Brady's in 2013. Tom ranked QB3 (21 PPG) in the 5 games where Gronkowski saw at least 50% of snaps. When Gronk was out, he was QB19 (13.3 PPG). Yep. He finished the regular season with 380comp-4343yrds-25td-11int, good for 264.4 fantasy points (16.5PPG) as QB14 in fantasy, a major disappointment to owners who drafted him as his ADP of 4.07 QB4. It was the first time he finished outside of the top-12 among quarterbacks since 2008. He only had six top-12 finishes last year, and had plenty of outings where he was barely a quarterback two for fantasy owners; Brady only warranted a fantasy start 37.5% of the time.
There is no doubt Brady was unlucky last year, but before we get into that, it’s also worth nothing that he simply wasn't the elite passer we have grown accustomed to seeing over the years. According to Pro Football Focus, his fantasy points per dropback have decreased in each of the last three seasons, as well as his deep ball accuracy. His stats under pressure were also concerning, as Brady completed just 57.6% of passes when under pressure, good for 28th among qualified passers.
On the luck side of things, not having all of his weapons healthy hurt tremendously. As many expected, Amendola spent more time on the trainer's table than the field, and the playing status of Gronk had a massive effect on the fantasy bottom line. This said, Brady also didn't have a ton of help; New England pass catchers ranked second in dropped passes and first in being tackled at the one yard line (which happened eight times). Clearly, there is huge fantasy potential here, but it still hinges on the health of a one of the most oft-injured Tight Ends in football. Draft Brady as a fringe QB1 still, but he’s no longer one of the top dogs. I love Tom in real life, but at his current ADP he likely won't be on many of my fantasy teams in 2014.
Tom Brady: My Rank: QB12, FantasyPros ECR Rank: QB10, ADP: 7.02 (QB8)
RB Assessment
One of the first commandments of Fantasy Football reads:
Thou Shalt Not Draft Patriots RBs
The problem with this rule is that it's just so god damned temping. I mean, come on, we're talking about one of the best offences in the league! The points are gonna be there! The problem is that Belichick hates your fantasy football team. Seriously. He told me.
Stevan Ridley came out of the 2013 season with a bad case of the fumbles, which resulted in a loss of carries and a sub-1,000 yard season to follow his outstanding 2012. Ridley runs well between the tackles and is a good compliment to the shiftier Shane Vereen. There are other backs on the roster capable though, and if he cannot hold onto the ball, he'll get pushed by them for the starting job. That said, with Blount now out of the way I think the path is clear for Ridley to regain his role as lead back in the offencse. If he can hold on to the ball and receive starter snaps in a full 16 games, I think he presents a great draft day value coming off the board at 6.04 RB#29. That said, history has shown us that nothing is a given with this team, so Ridley remains a high-upside boom/bust player. Proceed with caution, but I personally believe he is good value at that draft position.
Shane Vereen once again had injury issues in 2013, and otherwise would have seen a lot more carries considering Stevan Ridley couldn't hang onto the ball. While Vereen tends to play a different role in the offense than Ridley (catching the ball and running outside), he can run between the tackles and could see more carries early on if Ridley continues to struggle with ball security. Vereen is the favourite to lead the Patriots in fantasy production, with 4for4 projecting around 1050 all purpose yards and 7TDs. As a pass-catching back, Vereen also clearly gets a huge boost in PPR leagues.
In terms of backups, Brandon Bolden has struggled with injuries and when he has been healthy, more often than not is inactive. He's a decent runner, but nothing special and one wonders if he'll make the cut come August. Former Dolphin Jonas Gray is a decent short yardage back, who was actually better than current Dolphin Daniel Thomas last summer. He runs with a bruising style and could be the replacement for LaGarrette Blount. Rookie James White was a fourth round selection who runs smart, and is patient behind his blockers. He's not the most explosive players but he has decent speed and could end up as a third-down back.
Stevan Ridley: My Rank: RB30, FantasyPros ECR: RB30 ADP 6.04 (RB29)
Shane Vereen: My Rank: RB25, FantasyPros ECR: RB23, ADP 4.11 (RB22)
WR Assessment
In terms of wideouts, there really was only one true ray of light for Tom Brady: Julian Edelman. 105 receptions (4th highest in football) was pretty damn good. A PPR dream, in fact. While most entered the season thinking Amendola would be the 100-catch guy, it was the familiar face Julian Edelman who thrived with Brady. There were only four weeks where Edelman didn't haul in at least five passes last year, making him an elite points-per-reception asset. That said, I must give a word of caution. In 2013 Edelman exceeded his total production from his first four seasons combined, and he played 16 games for the first time in his career. With the other weapons healthy in 2014, regression is likely.
My advice on Amendola: don't. Just don't. He's got the talent, but really can't stay healthy. Avoid the headache and let someone else roll the dice with Danny on draft day.
Aaron Dobson came on in the middle of the season as he caught three touchdowns and 190 yards in two games against Miami and Pittsburgh before fracturing his foot. Aaron could see plenty of targets this year if he's healthy, and recovery seems to be progressing well. I personally think Dobson could prove to be a great draft day value at his current ADP of 11.12 (WR53) in 12-team standard leagues.
Dobson will be competing with former Carolina Panther Brandon LaFell. LaFell has never really fulfilled his potential, catching no more than 49 balls in a season or topping 700 yards. Meanwhile, according to some sources Josh Boyce might be competing with Kenbrell Thompkins for a roster spot. Boyce was hurt a lot last season (most of the receivers were) and will have to stand out in camp if he's going to win that fifth roster spot. Truthfully, the fantasy WR situation in New England is murky at best. There are clearly a number of talented players here, the question remains which will be the ones to stay healthy and rise to the occasion.
Julian Edelman: Mr Rank: WR32, FantasyPros ECR: WR29, ADP 6.10 (WR29)
Danny Amendola: Mr Rank: WR61 , FantasyPros ECR: WR53 , ADP 10.09 (WR46)
Aaron Dobson: Mr Rank: WR54 , FantasyPros ECR WR49, ADP 11.12 (WR53)
TE Assessment
Gronk smash!
The good news for the Patriots is that Rob Gronkowski remains on track in his recovery from re-constructive knee surgery. The bad news, as we saw last year, is that Gronk is known to take his time when returning form injuries. Proceed with caution (seems to be the theme song of this entire write-up), though I personally believe that compared to last year, he'll be ready to go closer to the start of the regular season, if not for Week 1.
If we knew he was going to play 16 games, Rob Gronkowski would be the top tight end in fantasy. There is no better red zone target in the game of football today and, like Jimmy Graham, he can totally alter the tight end position in fantasy land. During his seven games last year, Gronk averaged 5.5 catches for 84.5 yards and found the end zone four times, posting five top-12 finishes during those seven games. Draft him in the mid third round and hope he plays all 16 games. If so, you’ll probably have the best tight end in fantasy football. That said, most of you learned last year that drafting a backup TE is highly advisable. But who knows, maybe you'll land this year's Julius Thomas (as I'm told many Gronk owners did last year).
Rob Gronkowski: My Rank: TE3, FantasyPros ECR: TE3, ADP 3.07 (TE3)
K/DST/Misc Assessment
You know, I hate drafting kickers. I almost never do it. But I'd make an exception for Stephen Gostowski in the thirteenth round. Problem is, you're not going to get him there because someone always ends up reaching for him earlier. The man made 38 of 41 (92.7%) of field goals and was perfect on his 44 extra point attempts last year, to once more lead all fantasy kickers. The Patriots have ranked in the top ten in kicker scoring opportunities for seven straight years, the longest active streak in the league. The icing: they were number one the past two years.
What was a very talented defense in 2013 became even more so after the signing of CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner and the drafting of DT Dominique Easley. Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich provide a dynamic defensive end duo that can get to the quarterback. Donta' Hightower is a solid young MLB, but there are some question marks at OLB. A healthy Jerod Mayo would answer one of those questions and make this a very solid unit. With Revis in the mix and a very good pass rush, this should be a unit that provides a lot of sacks and big plays on the back end
Stephen Gostowski: My Rank: K2, FantasyPros ECR: K2, ADP 13.03 (K2)
Patriots DST: My Rank: DST6, FantasyPros ECR: DST8, ADP 11.10 (DST6)
Coaching
The Dark Lord Reins Supreme. Bill Belichick is one of the great football minds of our time, which makes forecasting fantasy projections incredibly tough. With a lot of off-season focus on the defensive side of the ball, one would expect the Patriots to hold the lead in more games, likely shifting towards a more run-balanced offence.
OC Josh McDaniels enters his 3rd season as the team's OC. The Patriots were 1st in both points and yards in 2012. In 2013, they fell to 3rd and 7th respectively despite the plethora of injuries. Gronkowski’s recovery from a late-season ACL & PCL tear will be key to the Patriots’ offensive potential in 2014.
Notes
As an organization, you know you're doing something right when your team wins twelve games, makes the AFC Championship, and it’s still considered a "down"season. That said, I want to make one thing perfectly clear: Bill Belichick hates your fantasy team. There is fantasy value to be had with the New England Patriots; The trouble lies in trying to predict it. With virtually every player comes a risk to either under-preform or re-aggravate injury. This said, the potential fantasy production is substantial, making most Pats players quintessential boom/bust plays in 2013. Here's hoping for a boom!
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