Here's a sneak preview of tomorrow's posting in r/fantasyfootball's 32 in 32: Detroit Lions
Personnel Changes:
Notable Acquisitions: WR Golden Tate (SEA), HC Jim Caldwell (BAL OC), OC Joe Lombardi (NO QB Coach)
Notable Departures: HC Jim Schwartz, OC Scott Linehan, WR Nate Burleson
Draft Picks: (1.10) TE Eric Ebron, (2.08) OLB Kyle Van Noy, (3.12) C Travis Swanson, (4.33) CB Nevin Lawson, (4.36) DE Larry Webster, (5.18) DT Caraun Reid, (6.13) WR T.J. Jones, (7.14) K Nate Freese ... see guys, even the pros know better than to take a kicker before the last round.
Outside of the complete overhaul of the coaching staff, the only real fantasy noise the Lions made in the off-season was the signing of WR Golden Tate and the drafting of TE Eric Ebron in the first round.
QB Assessment:
Matthew Stafford finished QB5 over the fantasy season (weeks 1-16), posting 288.9 fantasy points (18.9 PPG) in 4PPTD over that span. That said, citing an average of 19 PPG can be a little misleading. The truth is, Stafford's 2013 was really a tale of three fantasy seasons, but unless you owned him you may not have noticed. Take a look at his weekly production:
Week | Pts |QB#
---|---|----
1|20.9|QB12
2|19.2|QB12
3|22.6|QB9
4|19.5|QB11
5|14.4|QB17
6|25.5|QB4
7|26.3|QB5
8|28.7|QB3
9|BYE|BYE
10|19.7|QB8
11|23.9|QB4
12|20.5|QB9
13|24.0|QB5
14|5.7|QB33
15|11.3|QB27
16|6.8|QB29
Stafford came out of the gate posting decent baseline (QB12-type) numbers over the first five weeks, although this was somewhat disappointing to fantasy owners who took him at his ADP of 6.07 (QB8). After the slow start he got white hot from weeks 6-13, averaging top-5 QB (24.1 PPG) numbers. Just when fantasy owners were feeling comfortable with their every-week starter, the fantasy wheels fell off the bus against Philly in week 14 and never recovered. He finished no better than an abysmal QB27 over weeks 14-16, essentially hanging his owners out to dry during the fantasy football playoffs (a mortal sin).
Looking ahead to 2014, Stafford will begin the year with some of the best offensive weapons that he has ever had. He has ranked inside the top-five in pass attempts in each of the last three seasons and has been durable during this span, shaking the injury-prone label of his early days by not missing a single game. The biggest concern here is how much Stafford struggles when Calvin Johnson is not in the lineup, but given Megatron's ability to play well through nagging injuries, this shouldn't keep owners up at night.
Outside of the big three at the quarterback position, Stafford is the next best thing. The Lions are one of the top offences in the league and should be involved in plenty of shoot-outs in the NFC North. Stafford could easily emerge into the top-three in scoring this year, and is a decent bet for top-5 production.
Matthew Stafford: My rank: QB5; FantasyPros ECR: QB4, Current ADP: 4.12. If he falls to you in the 5th round, don't hesitate to take him. If you really want him, you'll likely need to snag him in the 4th.
RB Assessment:
Meagtron taking the top off of opposing defences opened the door for both Lions tailbacks set career highs in 2013. Reggie Bush was a very pleasant surprise for owners, finishing as RB10 in standard and outperforming his ADP of RB17. Bush posted 223-1006-4 (4.5 YPC) rushing and 54-506-3 receiving, good for 190.7 fantasy points in standard (11.9 PPG). In PPR things were even better, and Bush finished RB7 with 244.7 fantasy points (15.3 PPG). That said, it was clear Reggie did wear down a bit and also missed two games due to injury, so there is reason to be cautious with him in 2014 at his current draft price. Bush is currently coming off the board as RB17 (just like last year) with an ADP of 3.08 in 12-team standard.
Joique Bell finished the season as RB17 in standard, making him an absolute steal for owners who took a flier on him in the 12th round (on average). Bell posted 166-653-8 (3.9 YPC) rushing and 53-547-0 receiving, good for 166 fantasy points (10.4 PPG) . Last year, Bell averaged 38.9 snaps per game, compared to Bush’s 43.6, but still managed to produce more fantasy points per touch. Bell also handled red-zone duty, seeing 29 looks in close, more than even Megatron. Under new offensive coordinator Scott Lombardi, many believe that something similar to the Saints backfield will be take shape with Bush catching passes (in a Sproles/Thomas-type role), and Bell being their banger between the tackles and handling short-yardage/goal line work. For this reason many (myself included) have Bush/Bell ranked very closely coming into 2014, but the ADP data still has quite a large gap. Bell is currently coming off the board as RB27 5.10 in 12-team standard. At this price, I think Bell is **an outstanding value**, and the clear winner between the two when looking at draft equity. The only point of caution here is the fact that Bell has been dealing with an off-season knee issue that kept him out of OTAs, but most believe he should be good to go for camp later this month.
Getting into the backups, Lions RB Theo Riddick could also surprise some people this season, and has been the subject of buzz from numerous sources. His RB/WR hybrid skillset overlaps more with Reggie Bush's talents than Joique Bell's, so it is likely Bush would be hurt most by the Lions possibly switching to a three-headed RB approach that offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi saw work very well in New Orleans. Riddick isn't worth drafting at this time, but keep a close eye on him on the wire in PPR leagues, and be sure to not overdraft Reggie Bush. Similarly, Mikel Leshoure would likely only become fantasy relevant if the injury bug strikes the big two.
**Reggie Bush:** My rank: RB21; FantasyPros ECR: RB18; ADP 3.08 (RB17). I don't like him at this ADP, he likely won't be on many of my teams in 2014 at this price.
**Joique Bell:** My rank: RB20; FantasyPros ECR: RB25; ADP 5.10 (RB27). Outstanding value; a potential RB2 being drafted at RB3 prices. He could easily eclipse Bush in fantasy production in 2014.
WR Assessment:
What can I say about Calvin Johnson? Do I even need to say it? He's really good at football. Ridiculously good. Over the past 5 years, he has been one of the most consistently high performers the league has ever seen, and is the centrepiece of the Lions' offense. He's unquestionably a mid-late first round fantasy draft pick as a WR1 again in 2014, and is one of the safest bets you can make in fantasy football. Johnson has been working his way back from surgery on his right knee and a finger on his left hand during recent OTAs, but he appeared to be moving without difficulty and should be full-go once again this season. Fear not. He is a transformer, after all.
With Nate Burleson released and Ryan Broyles failing to stay healthy, the Lions were desperate for a second receiver to line up across from Megatron. Enter Golden Tate, who was the clear prize for the Lions in free agency, accepting a five0year, $31.25 million deal. In Tate, Johnson will have a game-breaking side-kick working opposite him for the first time in his seven-year career, which should benefit them both. In 2013, Tate had an efficient fantasy season, posting 1.21 fantasy points-per-target on a career-high 99 targets, which was right on his three-year average. Last year, the Lions threw it 51% more than the Seahawks, so Tate should be in line for a clear bump in production assuming he can develop a rapport with Stafford. Playing opposite Calvin pretty much ensures single coverage on virtually every play, which is also a huge plus. Going into 2013 I see Tate as a fantasy WR3 with definite upside.
In terms of backups, Kris Durham was actually Detroit’s #2 wideout last season, but he had just three receptions in the final four games of the season. Similarly, Ryan Broyles and Kevin Ogletree remain undraftable waiver fodder barring injury to the big two.
Calvin Johnson: My rank: WR1; FantasyPros ECR: WR1; ADP 1.06. Quite possibly the safest bet in fantasy football.
Golden Tate: My rank: WR30; FantasyPros ECR: WR32; ADP 7.06 (WR31). Should be a very solid WR3 to target in the 7th round.
TE Assessment:
Brandon Pettigrew signed a four-year contract extension in the spring, so it came as a bit of a surprise when the Lions selected Eric Ebron with the 10th overall pick in the first round of this year's draft. Pettigrew is coming off his worst season since his rookie year, posting 41-416-2 and finishing TE31 in standard after a late-season ankle injury caused him to miss the final two games, a story that has plagued his career.
Joseph Faurina finished his rookie season with ok numbers, but his production was laregely TD-dependant, making him nearly impossible to rely upon for fantasy purposes. His three TD catch game against Cleveland was the highlight of his year, and he added six catches in the final two games with Pettigrew on the sideline. The Cleveland game was his only game with more than 10 fantasy points, despite four other TD catches over the season.
Eric Ebron was the first tight end selected in the 2014 NFL draft, and is already being compared to the likes of Vernon Davis for his freakish athleticism. Those comparisons to Davis and the talk of a Graham-like role in Lombardi's offence may have fantasy owners salivating, but the simple fact is rookie tight ends very rarely make a dent in fantasy football. While his dynasty value is clearly there, at this point he remains only a speculation pick in redraft, and it not worth more than a late round flier as a backup TE2 at this point.
Eric Ebron: My rank: TE22; FantasyPros ECR: TE17; ADP: 11.03 (and falling) TE12. Right now Ebron is being taken well ahead of Martellus Bennet, Heath Miller & Ladarius Green, which I think is a little nuts. I would snag him as a late round flier, but not in the 11th/12th. Rookie TEs seldom deliver.
Kicker/DST/Misc Assessment:
Kicker Sleeper Alert (did I really just write that?) Rookie Nate Freese is the favorite to get the starting job for the Lions. He topped the recruiting chart and they used a 7th round draft pick to select him. He could be a sneaky last round fantasy pick/early season waiver add, as he'll kick for a potent offence who also happen to play in a dome (a huge plus for kickers).
DST: While the Lions D-line anchored by Suh has been solid, the secondary continues to be a question mark and will likely stay that way. This is great news for the skill positions outlined above, as Detriot will likely be in lots of high-scoring shoot-outs once again. That said, if the secondary play improves the Lions could be a sneaky DST in fantasy, but I'd still likely avoid them unless /u/quickonthedrawl changed my mind.
Coaching:
HC: Jim Caldwell replaces Jim Schwartz
OC: Joe Lombardi replaces Scott Linehan
Former Ravens OC, the cool and calm Jim Caldwell takes over for the fiery Jim Schwartz at the helm the Lions, in a move that should serve to bring a little more stability to the locker room. This also bodes well for Matthew Stafford, who should likely benefit from Caldwell's experience cocahing Peyton Manning and most recently shaping Joe Flacco into form for their 2012 Superbowl run.
After seven seasons as the offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach in New Orleans, Joe Lombardi takes over the offence in Detroit, and is reportedly still calling Saints plays in OTAs. He’s expected to use a committee at RB, spreading the touches between Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. New Orleans was pass-heavy during his time there, and I'd expect more of the same from the Lions this year.
Notes:
After complete and utter collapse down the stretch in 2013, it was clear that a coaching overhaul was necessary for the Lions, which should bring some much needed stability. Calvin Johnson should continue to hold elite fantasy WR value and be one of the safest bets in fantasy football. Stafford should continue to push towards elite status, but for now remains in the solid tier-2 of QBs. I see Bush and Bell being fairly close in fantasy value this year, which means that Bush is currently being over-drafted and Bell remains a solid value in the late 5th round. Both should be very capable RB2's. Golden Tate will have an opportunity to put his superior catching ability to good use in the Lions pass-happy offence. He makes an excellent WR3 with WR2 upside in the mid-7th round. I'm not personally sold on having to rely on any of the Lions TE for fantasy purposes in 2013, but Ebron's superior athleticism sets him apart as a solid dynasty pick-up and 2015 prospect.
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