Today on Reddit: A Tale of Two Bradys, plus more

Hello all!  In case you missed it on reddit today, here's a synopses of some of the numbers I dug through:

Tom Brady with/without Rob Gronkowski:

• In 2013 Tom Brady was QB#3 (21 PPG) in the 5 games where Gronk saw 50%+ of snaps. When Gronk was out: QB#19 (13.3 PPG)
• Amendola had a pretty terrible season, posting 54-633-2 over 12 starts (that's right, he only actually missed 5 games). That said, he was only actually on the field for 62% of offensive snaps for the whole season.  For the purposes of analysis, I'll only use games where Amendola got starter snaps (50%+), which are weeks 1, 5, 6, 8, 9 & 11-15 (i.e. he was injured or a non-factor in 7/17 games). Over these 10 "starter" games, he posted 51-579-2, good for 7.0 PPG (WR#33) in standard. He was 12.1 PPG (WR#28) in PPR for that same span.  As for Tom, in those 10 games that Amendola got starter snaps, he was 19.0 PPG (QB#4). In the 7 games Danny was out or played less than half of snaps, Tom posted 10.7 PPG (QB#23) below Flacco and Eli. It's worth noting that Gronk only played in one of these 7 games.  Conclusion: Brady is like two different QBs when Gronk/Amendola are on/off the field.
• In 2013 Vereen saw starter snaps (47%+) in 6 games (weeks 1, 11-15). He was not really utilized in Weeks 16 & 17; the Pats had made the playoffs at that point and leaned on Blount & Ridley. In these 6 "starting" games, Vereen posted 40-199-1 rushing & 43-381-1 receiving, good for 11.7 PPG (RB#14) in standard, but a whopping 18.8 PPG (RB#4) in PPR during that span.  With Vereen on the field getting starter snaps, Brady posted 21 PPG (QB#3) - but keep in mind Gronk was also on the field for half of these games. When Vereen was not getting starter reps, Brady posted 12.6 PPG (QB#20) below Flacco & Tannehill. Only 4 of these 11 games without Vereen had Gronk playing (so both were missing for 7/11).  Conclusion: Vereen is a PPR monster. Brady is a completely different QB with and without his weapons (this isn't much of a shock).

Peyton Manning with/without Wes Welker:

• Wes Welker himself was a Jekyll & Hyde tale of two seasons last year. Before the Broncos' bye (weeks 1-8), he went 40-555-9, good for 13.7PPG (WR#3) in Standard. In the full games he played after the bye (weeks 10-13), he posted an abysmal 18-162-0, or 4.1PPG (WR#61) behind the likes of Marquise Goodwin and Darius Johnson (who??) in that 4-game span.
• To answer your question, Peyton Manning with Wes (weeks 1-13) was 24.8PPG (QB#1), and without Wes (weeks 14-17) was 27.3PPG (QB#1). So, believe it or not the old man got better without Wes. Three of those last four games he threw 4 touchdowns. Sweet jesus.

Eddie Lacy with/without Aaron Rodgers:

• Aaron Rogers got starter snaps at QB for Weeks 1-3, 5-8 & 17 (8 games). He was injured/out for weeks 9-16 (8 games); week 4 was the bye.  Eddie Lacy played starter snaps in 14 games in 2013 (week 1, 5-17). He was out weeks 2 & 3 with a concussion, week 4 was the bye.
• During the 14 games Lacy played starter snaps (with and without Rodgers), he posted 283-1168-11 (4.1 YPC), good for 14.8 PPG (RB#4).  In the 6 weeks both Lacy and Rodgers were on the field together (weeks 1, 5-8 & 17), Lacy posted 132-502-4 (3.8 YPC), good for 13.8 PPG (RB#6). In the 8 weeks Rodgers was inured (weeks 9-16), Lacy posted 151-666-7 (4.4 YPC), good for 15.6 PPG (RB#3).  
• Lacy stepped up when he needed to and actually improved with his star QB sidelined with injury. The fact that he "came on" at the end of the season can also be attributed to the rookie becoming better acquainted with the offence, but it was clear they needed to lean on the run during that span and Fat Eddie preformed admirably.

Alshon Jeffery with/without Jay Cutler:

• Cutler saw starter snaps in Weeks 1-6, 10 and 15-17. McCown got the starter reps in 7, 9 and 11-14. During the 10 game Cutler era, Alshon posted 52-798-3 for 10.4PPG (WR#9). During the McCown 6 game era, Alshon posted 37-623-4 for 14.8PPG (WR#4).
• So yes, there was a difference. Though this also may be somewhat attributed to Alshon "coming on" later in the year as he got more comfortable in the offence.

Jordy Nelson with/without Aaron Rodgers:

• Jordy Nelson finished the season with 85-1314-8, good for 10.9 PPG (WR#11) in standard.
• Aaron Rodgers played starter snaps in weeks 1-3 (4 was a bye), 5-8 & 17. During the 8-game Rodgers era, Jordy posted 49-810-7, good for 15.4 PPG (WR#1). Yep. He was better than Calvin Johnson for the half season they were together. Pretty wild. Under QBs not named Aaron Rodgers (weeks 9-16), Jordy posted a meagre 36-504-1, good for a disappointing 7.1 PPG (WR#33) below the likes of Amendola and Harry Douglas.
• Conclusion: Similar to Welker and Brady, Nelson clearly had a tale of two seasons. With Aaron Rodgers under centre, Jordy was on fire as the best weekly fantasy receiver in the league. The loss of Rodgers destroyed Jordy's fantasy worth, flinging him from the elite group into the low WR3 tier.

I also got the same question about Jordy, except in PPR:

• Jordy Nelson finished the season with 85-1314-8, good for 16.5 PPG (WR#13) in PPR.
• Aaron Rodgers played starter snaps in weeks 1-3 (4 was a bye), 5-8 & 17. During the 8-game Rodgers era, Jordy posted 49-810-7, good for 21.5 PPG (WR#1) in PPR. Yep. He was (still) better than Calvin Johnson for the half season they were together. Pretty wild.
• Under QBs not named Aaron Rodgers (weeks 9-16), Jordy posted a meagre 36-504-1, good for a disappointing 11.6 PPG (WR#30) in PPR, on par with Greg Jennings and Doug Baldwin.

Jordy Nelson with/without Randall Cobb & Aaron Rodgers:

• Jordy with Rodgers & Cobb - 6 Games (weeks 1-3, 5-6 & 17): 37-645-4, good for 14.8 PPG (WR#1)
• Jordy with Rodgers & no Cobb - 2 Games (weeks 7-8): 12-165-3, good for 17.3(!!) PPG (WR#3). Important to note here that weeks 7 and 8 where when Marvin Jones blew up for 5 TDs and Megatron had nearly 500 yards in 2 games, so take that "WR#3" with a grain of salt.
• Jordy with no Rodgers & Cobb - 8 Games (weeks 9-16): 36-504-1, 7.1 PPG (WR#33).
• So it's a super small sample size, but I think it's fairly clear that it was the loss of Rodgers that had the most effect. The loss of Cobb would definitely hurt (having him draw coverage), but the QB play was the key for Jordy.

Randall Cobb:

• Randall Cobb played full games in weeks 1-3, 5 & 17. He was on bye in week 4 and got hurt in week 6.
• Over those 5 games with starter snaps, he posted 27-380-4, good for 14.0 PPG (WR#5). Jordy was WR#2 in that same span.
• So, provided all the pieces of the Packers passing game are back healthy, the production should be there to support Jordy/Cobb as very solid WR1/2's.

2014

Hey all,
Quick note to say hello and welcome back!  I apologize for my lack of posts over the past few months - I took a bit of an off-season breather.

The looming NFL draft has me re-engaged and ready to go.  Be sure to follow me on twitter, where I post and re-tweet the best fantasy football info from across the net.

Cheers and good luck in 2014,

Reid

Target Practice: Week 13

Welcome to Week 13!  This week I continue my analysis of which wide receivers are making the most of their chances in the passing game.  By using ProFootballFocus’ Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I will highlight the best and the worst of five wide receiver tier groupings. For reference, PPO,= Fantasy Points / (Receptions + Routes Run), while PPT = Fantasy Points / Targets.  The goal of this analysis is to highlight players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 13 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create five wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 13 – Tier 1:

I’m sounding like a broken record at this point, but the best of the best continues to beCalvin Johnson (0.44 PPO, 1.58 PPT), who had himself a great little Thanksgiving Day at home, surpassing the 100-yard receiving mark for a league-best 7th time this season.  Other stand-outs in the elite tier include Brandon Marshall (0.35 PPO, 1.34PPT) and Demaryius Thomas(0.35 PPO, 1.60 PPT).  Obviously there are no bad options here, but somewhat surprisinglyDez Bryant (0.30 PPO, 1.27 PPT) leads the list of players slumping the most in this tier, followed by Antonio Brown (0.31 PPO, 1.27 PPT), and A.J. Green (0.31 PPO, 1.18 PPT).  Nonetheless, owners should continue to start all of these players with confidence in Week 13.

Week 13 – Tier 2:

Despite leading this tier in PPO, many Jordy Nelson (0.30 PPO, 1.61 PPT) owners will be wishing for a speedy return for Aaron Rodgers after a very disappointing Thanksgiving Day outing with backup quarterback Matt Flynn under center for the Green Bay Packers.  Others topping my list in this tier include DeSean Jackson (0.37 PPO, 1.65 PPT) and Andre Johnson(0.31 PPO, 1.12 PPT), who continue to be risk/reward boarder-line WR1′s in Week 13.  The players struggling the most in this tier include Victor Cruz (0.26 PPO, 1.11 PPT) and Larry Fitzgerald (0.26 PPO, 1.28 PPT); both of which have seen their values fall this season to the disappointment of owners.

Week 13 – Tiers 3 & 4:

Grouping touchdown leader Riley Cooper (0.29 PPO, 1.94 PPT) headlines here, and will look to keep things going this week at home against the Cardinals.  Other notable players from this list include Keenan Allen (0.26 PPO, 1.36 PPT) and Michael Floyd (0.24 PPO, 1.27 PPT), who have both been preforming admirably of late.  Conversely, having only found the end-zone twice all season, Mike Wallace (0.18 PPO, 0.86 PPT) and Harry Douglas (0.22 PPO, 1.14 PPT) find themselves as the under-performers from these tiers as the season winds down, and are risky low-WR2 plays in Week 13.

Week 13 – Tier 5:

Slipping into the WR3 range, the players making the most of their chances in this tier are facing each other this week.  Look for T.Y. Hilton (0.29 PPO, 1.18 PPT) and PPR monsterKendall Wright (0.24 PPO, 0.99 PPT) to continue to progress as the lead passing options for their teams. On the other hand, players with the most unsavory numbers in this grouping are perennial disappointment Dwayne Bowe (0.17 PPO, 0.96 PPT) and Cecils Shorts (0.19 PPO, 0.74 PPT). Both fall into ‘Start at your own risk’ territory as far as I’m concerned.

Week 13 – Tier 6:

Going deeper, it’s very hard to trust anyone in Tier 6 with a starting job in Week 13, particularly if you’ve got playoff aspirations on the line.  That said, if your back is against the wall, there are a couple of players here who stand out among the rest.  Anquan Boldin (0.33 PPO, 1.31 PPT), Tavon Austin (0.30 PPO, 1.39 PPT) and Rueben Randle (0.29 PPO, 1.58 PPT) have made the most of their opportunities to date and could be worth a flier.  The players in this tier that I would have the hardest time relying on in Week 13 include Roddy White (0.08 PPO, 0.74 PPT), Robert Woods (0.15 PPO, 0.82 PPT) and Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0,85 PPT); these players have simply been too unreliable over the course of the 2013 season.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 13!

Essential Links: Week 13

Thought I'd get a head start this week on the posting.  Check out:

NYT Sablich Brothers' Fantasy Football: 2013 Matchup Analysis
I thought this graphic of The Circle of life in the NFL was very interesting

Stay tuned for updates to this list as we progress through the week, and follow me on twitter @TheReidOption to keep up with all the latest!

Essential Links: Week 12

My article: Target Practice: Week 12 has been posted on TopTeamFantasy.  Give it a read and come join the conversation on reddit!

Streaming DST

Nerdballmagazine's Defense Wins Championships Week 11

Stay tuned for updates to this list as we progress through the week, and follow me on twitter @TheReidOption to keep up with all the latest!

Target Practice: Week 12

Welcome to Week 12!  This week I continue my analysis of which wide receivers are making the most of their chances in the passing game.  By using ProFootballFocus’ Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I will highlight the best and the worst of four wide receiver tier groupings. For reference, PPO,= Fantasy Points / (Receptions + Routes Run), while PPT = Fantasy Points / Targets.  The goal of this analysis is to highlight players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 12 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create four wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 12 – Tier 1:

Calvin Johnson (0.46 PPO, 1.69 PPT) is pulling away from the pack, and for an unprecedented 3rd straight year has been the most dominant wide receiver in football.  Truthfully, he belongs in a tier all to himself.  If you drafted Megatron in the late first/early second round this past August and avoided the minefield of RB busts, go ahead and give yourself a solid pat on the back.  Johnson is the picture of reliable elite-level fantasy production week after week, and is winning leagues for his owners because of it.  Demaryius Thomas (0.35 PPO, 1.65 PPT), Brandon Marshall (0.35 PPO, 1.31 PPT) and Jordy Nelson (0.34 PPO, 1.68 PPT) round out the best-of-the-best list for Week 12, and continue to put up solid fantasy numbers across the board.  Victor Cruz (0.28 PPO, 1.13 PPT) and (somewhat surprisingly) Vincent Jackson (0.31 PPO, 1.01 PPT) check in as the top-tier players with the lowest PPO & PPT numbers this week, though I expect both players to have very solid weeks against the Cowboys and Lions, respectively.

Week 12 – Tiers 2 & 3:

The good news for Wes Welker owners is that he is working through concussion protocols and was back on the practice field Thursday.  All signs point to him suiting up for a huge match-up against his old team, the Patriots, on Sunday.  Wes has slipped into Tier 2 for the first time this season, but still leads this group with a PPO of 0.32 and PPT 1.37; I expect to see him back in Tier 1 shortly.  Antonio Brown (0.31 1.25) has been on fire of late in Standard scoring, averaging over 16 fantasy points per game over the last three games. That said, excited owners need to keep expectations in check this week as Brown is facing off against notoriously stingy Cornerback Joe Haden of the Cleveland Browns.  Other players in this tier making the most of their targets and opportunities include T.Y. Hilton (0.31 PPO, 1.27 PPT) and Josh Gordon (0.29 PPO, 1.35 PPT). On the other hand, while Kendall Wright(0.22 PPO, 0.87 PPT) has been very solid in PPR, he is the lowest hanging fruit among this tier.  Similarly, Marques Colston (0.21 PPO, 1.20 PPT) has been having a decent resurgence of late after a very disappointing start to the season, but will continue to frustrate owners with his swings in production.

Week 12 – Tier 4:

Tier 4 starts to get a little dicey, but there are still some solid producers in this grouping.  Leading the way in points-per-opportunity are Anquan Bolidn (0.29 PPO, 1.13 PPT), group TD leader Aaron Dobson (0.27 PPO, 1.12 PPT) and Jarrett Boykin (0.26 PPO, 1.32 PPT) who as been preforming admirably in the Randall Cobb role.  Points-per-target leaders includeKeenan Allen (0.25 PPO, 1.43 PPT) and Michael Floyd (0.24 PPO, 1.25 PPT), who is hot off a big performance in Week 11.  The worst of this tier can be summed up as “disappointing 2013 fantasy veterans”, and include: Roddy White (0.09 PPO, 0.71 PPT), Dwayne Bowe (0.15 PPO, 0.88 PPT) and Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0.85 PPT) who has yet to record a touchdown in 2013.  Start these guys at your own risk.

Week 12 – Tiers 5 & 6:

Going deeper, there are still a few decent options in the lower tiers.  Stand-outs in this grouping include Ruben Randle (0.30 PPO, 1.61 PPT), Rishard Matthews (0.27 PPT, 1.17 PPT) and Terrance Wiliams (0.26 PPO, 1.59 PPT).  All three should make for decent WR3/Flex plays in Week 12.  On the flip side, while Matthews has been coming on of late, it seems Mike Wallace (0.15 PPO, 0.74 PPT) and Brian Hartline (0.18 PPO, 0.92 PPT) continue to regress, and should be avoided in Standard scoring formats at this point.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 12!

Target Practice: Week 11

Welcome to Week 11!  With looming trade deadlines and crucial divisional match-ups on the line, it’s fantasy crunch time, so let’s get right to it!  This week I continue my analysis of which wide receivers are making the most of their chances in the passing game.  By usingProFootballFocus’ Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I will highlight the best and the worst of five wide receiver tier groupings. For reference, PPO,= Fantasy Points / (Receptions + Routes Run), while PPT = Fantasy Points / Targets.  The goal of this analysis is to highlight players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 11 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis (which is now featured by the New York Times – way to go Boris!) to create five wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 11 – Tier 1:

As always, it’s hard to go wrong in the elite tier, but there are still over and under-performers among this grouping. Calvin Johnson (0.44 PPO, 1.58 PPT) and DeSean Jackson (0.38 PPO, 1.63 PPT) continue to be exceptional, and lead the way in terms of points-per-opportunity.  On the flip side, Vincent Jackson (0.27 PPO, 0.90 PPT) has been playing a bit of fantasy whack-a-mole with his production over the season, though I expect a strong showing this week against the Falcons.  Antonio Brown (0.27 PPO, 1.14 PPT) and Pierre Garcon (0.29 PPO, 1.07 PPT) are viable WR1/2 starts, but continue to struggle the most out of this upper echelon of wideouts, largely due to their lack of touchdowns.  Look for them to rebound to the mean going forward.

Week 11 – Tier 2:

Riley Cooper (0.30 PPO, 2.11 PPT) has been on absolute fire these past few weeks, and has become a must-start fantasy WR2 option with monster upside.  He and QB Nick Foles clearly have a rapport and are certainly making the most of the up-tempo Chip Kelly offense. Jordy Nelson (0.34 PPO, 1.73 PPT) has taken a major hit in value but the talent is obviously still there; owners will need to pay close attention to how he and new QB Scott Tolzien work together this Sunday facing a Giants defense that has been playing much better of late.  Keenan Allen (0.26 PPO, 1.51 PPT) has also been making the most of his chances, though he’s also in for a tough match-up in Week 11 against a Dolphins secondary that is allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to receivers.  The WR2′s struggling the most with their opportunities in this tier are Cecil Shorts (0.21 PPO, 0.76 PPT) and Torrey Smith (0.23 PPO, 1.11 PPT), which is somewhat surprising when you consider that they are the feature pass catchers of their respective teams.

Week 11 – Tier 3:

The stand-out here is fairly obvious because of his touchdown production: Golden Tate (0.30 PPO, 1.43 PPT) has been able to put together a fine string of games for fantasy owners.  He will look to continue his pace with a great match-up this week at home against the Vikings, though Percy Harvin may steal some thunder facing his former team on his first game back from injury. Mike Wallace (0.16 PPO, 0.75 PPT) is the stinker in this small tier with a catch rate of only 52% and a lone TD score on the year.  If Wallace can’t turn things around this week against two Chargers corners that rank among the worst in the league according to PFF, his value will continue to fall.

Week 11 – Tier 4:

Treading into deeper waters, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in starting anyone from this tier Week 11, though the potential is present for a select few.  Aaron Dobson (0.28 PPO, 1.17 PPT) seems to be finally over his early season drops and was a clear benefactor to the surging Patriots offense, posting two scores in his last game.  Marques Colston (0.20 PPO,  1.19 PPT) was likely on your bench when he chose to awake from the fantasy dead in Week 10, posting a 107-yard game and his first touchdown since the season opener.  Owners have every reason to be cautious here, as this was likely more a function of the Cowboys terrible defensive play than a sign of a resurgence.  Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0.84 PPT) and Roddy White (0.07 PPO, 0.60 PPT) continue to be massive disappointments in fantasy land, and their chances of salvaging their dismal seasons are becoming slimmer by the minute.

Week 11 – Tier 5:

Into the deep end!  Most of these players are tough to start in standard 12-team formats at this point, though as with Tier 4, there are still a handful of players at this level that are outshining their rank.  Marvin Jones (0.38 PPO,  2.04 PPT) leads this group in points-per-opportunity and points-per-target by a wide margin, but his Week 11 match-up against the Browns is no cake walk. Rueben Randle (0.29 PPO, 1.51 PPT) could be another name to consider as a WR3/Flex flier; he’s facing a Packers team that has typically been generous to wideouts.  Anquan Boldin (0.28 PPO, 1.08 PPT), Kenny Stills (0.25 PPO, 2.35 PPT) and Jarett Boykin (0.26 PPO, 1.32 PPT) round out the list of tier 5 players making the most of their chances to date. Conversely, Brian Hartline (0.18 PPO, 0.98 PPT) has simply been too unreliable to be started in standard formats, and while “Smokin” Dwayne Bowe (0.14 PPO, 0.87 PPT) will be playing Sunday, he shouldn’t be starting for your team in case you get a random drug test.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 11!