Target Practice: Week 13

Welcome to Week 13!  This week I continue my analysis of which wide receivers are making the most of their chances in the passing game.  By using ProFootballFocus’ Points-Per-Opportunity (PPO) metric and my own Points-Per-Target (PPT) metric, I will highlight the best and the worst of five wide receiver tier groupings. For reference, PPO,= Fantasy Points / (Receptions + Routes Run), while PPT = Fantasy Points / Targets.  The goal of this analysis is to highlight players who may be over or under performing in their current standing.  I’ll be using Boris Chen’s Week 13 Wide Receiver ECR Tier Analysis to create five wide receiver analysis groupings.

Week 13 – Tier 1:

I’m sounding like a broken record at this point, but the best of the best continues to beCalvin Johnson (0.44 PPO, 1.58 PPT), who had himself a great little Thanksgiving Day at home, surpassing the 100-yard receiving mark for a league-best 7th time this season.  Other stand-outs in the elite tier include Brandon Marshall (0.35 PPO, 1.34PPT) and Demaryius Thomas(0.35 PPO, 1.60 PPT).  Obviously there are no bad options here, but somewhat surprisinglyDez Bryant (0.30 PPO, 1.27 PPT) leads the list of players slumping the most in this tier, followed by Antonio Brown (0.31 PPO, 1.27 PPT), and A.J. Green (0.31 PPO, 1.18 PPT).  Nonetheless, owners should continue to start all of these players with confidence in Week 13.

Week 13 – Tier 2:

Despite leading this tier in PPO, many Jordy Nelson (0.30 PPO, 1.61 PPT) owners will be wishing for a speedy return for Aaron Rodgers after a very disappointing Thanksgiving Day outing with backup quarterback Matt Flynn under center for the Green Bay Packers.  Others topping my list in this tier include DeSean Jackson (0.37 PPO, 1.65 PPT) and Andre Johnson(0.31 PPO, 1.12 PPT), who continue to be risk/reward boarder-line WR1′s in Week 13.  The players struggling the most in this tier include Victor Cruz (0.26 PPO, 1.11 PPT) and Larry Fitzgerald (0.26 PPO, 1.28 PPT); both of which have seen their values fall this season to the disappointment of owners.

Week 13 – Tiers 3 & 4:

Grouping touchdown leader Riley Cooper (0.29 PPO, 1.94 PPT) headlines here, and will look to keep things going this week at home against the Cardinals.  Other notable players from this list include Keenan Allen (0.26 PPO, 1.36 PPT) and Michael Floyd (0.24 PPO, 1.27 PPT), who have both been preforming admirably of late.  Conversely, having only found the end-zone twice all season, Mike Wallace (0.18 PPO, 0.86 PPT) and Harry Douglas (0.22 PPO, 1.14 PPT) find themselves as the under-performers from these tiers as the season winds down, and are risky low-WR2 plays in Week 13.

Week 13 – Tier 5:

Slipping into the WR3 range, the players making the most of their chances in this tier are facing each other this week.  Look for T.Y. Hilton (0.29 PPO, 1.18 PPT) and PPR monsterKendall Wright (0.24 PPO, 0.99 PPT) to continue to progress as the lead passing options for their teams. On the other hand, players with the most unsavory numbers in this grouping are perennial disappointment Dwayne Bowe (0.17 PPO, 0.96 PPT) and Cecils Shorts (0.19 PPO, 0.74 PPT). Both fall into ‘Start at your own risk’ territory as far as I’m concerned.

Week 13 – Tier 6:

Going deeper, it’s very hard to trust anyone in Tier 6 with a starting job in Week 13, particularly if you’ve got playoff aspirations on the line.  That said, if your back is against the wall, there are a couple of players here who stand out among the rest.  Anquan Boldin (0.33 PPO, 1.31 PPT), Tavon Austin (0.30 PPO, 1.39 PPT) and Rueben Randle (0.29 PPO, 1.58 PPT) have made the most of their opportunities to date and could be worth a flier.  The players in this tier that I would have the hardest time relying on in Week 13 include Roddy White (0.08 PPO, 0.74 PPT), Robert Woods (0.15 PPO, 0.82 PPT) and Hakeem Nicks (0.17 PPO, 0,85 PPT); these players have simply been too unreliable over the course of the 2013 season.

Keep on the look-out for Friday updates to this article as I continue to track the progress of these players through the season.  As always, stay frosty and best of luck in Week 13!